Which indie films have the best shot at nabbing Oscar gold? Variety spotlights a dozen films that could be contenders. The Variety contender list includes: Brokeback Mountain; Capote; The Constant Gardener; Crash; Good Night and Good Luck; The Libertine; Match Point; Mrs. Henderson Presents; Pride and Prejudice; Proof; The Squid and the Whale; and The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada.

Question is, in which cats do these films have the best shot at getting a nod?

Pride and Prejudice and The Libertine likely have their best shot in the design categories. Although period pieces can do well at the Oscars (The English Patient, Titanic, Elizabeth, Shakespeare in Love being recent examples), I don't see either of these films as strong enough to garner significant nods. Johnny Depp (officially not the sexiest man alive this year) is a recent Oscar fave, nominated in both 2003 (Pirates of the Caribbean) and 2004 (Finding Neverland) and that might be enough to get him a Best Actor nom in spite of the racy content of Libertine, which will very likely otherwise keep the film out of serious contender status. Pride and Prejudice wasn't the worst movie of the year, but general consensus seems to be that it didn't quite edge out the 1995 TV miniseries version with Cinematical fave Colin Firth as Darcy; it's not very likely to make huge impact Oscar-wise.

Brokeback Mountain could well garner a Best Picture nom, and a Best Actor nomination for Heath Ledger, although the Aussie actor may not have enough of a serious acting track record to make him a fave in the final race (sorry, 10 Things I Hate About You doesn't count toward a track record, Heath). Jake Gyllenhaal could sneak in there too -- this has been a good year for him, but he's probably a more likely contender for Jarhead.  Philip Seymour Hoffman could make a mark for the title role in Capote, but as our own Ryan Stewart pointed out, mimicking Capote's signature flamboyant mannerisms, while an impressive feat, was not necessarily a huge burden on Hoffman as an actor. The Academy could well overlook Hoffman in spite of an overall impressive performance.

The Constant Gardener was such a critics' darling, it's almost certain to end up in the running somewhere. I'd look for Ralph Fiennes (Lord Voldemort himself) and newly pregnant Rachel Weisz to possibly sneak in there with acting noms, and the pic might slip in for a Best Picture nod as well. Good Night and Good Luck has a shot, especially in the Best Director category. I don't see it as a likely contender for Best Pic, though.

Perennial Oscar fave Dame Judi Dench is in Mrs. Henderson Presents, and I'd be truly shocked not to see her in the Best Actress list come January 31. She's an amazing actress, and with three recent noms in 1997 (Mrs. Brown), 2000 (Chocolat) and 2001 (Iris) and a win in 1998 (Shakespeare in Love), Oscar just loves Dench too much to ignore her. Mrs. Henderson could sneak in there in some other cats as well.

Three Burials, helmed by and starring Tommy Lee Jones, nominated in 1991 for JFK and a winner in 1993 for The Fugitive, Three Burials could be the film that does for Jones what Unforgiven (one of my fave films ever) did for Clint Eastwood. Unforgiven wasn't the first film Eastwood had directed, however - he had a slew of films under his directorial belt before he won Oscar gold as a director. It may be too soon for Jones to win in the director category, and the film is unlikely to stand much of a shot at Best Picture.  

Weigh in with your astute opinions, dear readers. Which indie flicks do you think have the best shot at the Oscars? Who do you want to see in the running against the big boys?