From the Editor's Desk, Dec. 20, 2006: A-Flop-Calypto!
Filed under: Action, Oscar Watch, Columns, From the Editor's Desk
Well, a few weeks ago I made a prediction about Apocalypto's prospective box office as a side note in a review. And I was wrong. Not about the idea that Apocalypto would be a flop -- more on that later -- but to do so in the first place. First of all, a review is no place for box-office prognostication -- it's foolish to pretend movies don't cost, and make, money, but that's not my beat, frankly. I was just plain angry after Apocalypto -- it's one of those movies that is, to me, so bad it doesn't just represent the presence of bad storytelling but also the absence of whatever four movies we could have had in its place.
I mean, Apocalypto was budgeted at $40 million -- not a lot by modern standards, but a heck of a lot when you consider that it was in fact shot on video. (I'd hesitate to guess what a shot-on-film Apocalypto would have cost -- $60 million? A hundred million?) Add in the usual 50% of the orginal budget for prints and advertising – the cost of posters, commercials, and the shipping and manufacture of heavy, celluloid prints – and you get approximately $60 million total. And all I can think of is the four $10 million dollar movies you could have gotten instead -- give $10 to Karen Moncrieff, $10 to David Gordon Green, $10 to Kasi Lemmons and $10 to Don McKellar, say -- and have gotten at least one film more interesting than Apocalypto. As for my suggestion that Apocalypto was going to be a flop? (Actually, what I said was "(Shot for approximately $40 million, it's nearly impossible to imagine Apocalypto making more than a quarter of that investment back.)") So, if we look at the numbers? Or, precisely, a budget of $40 million with a P&A investment of another $20 mil, as compared to the initial two-week box office of $28 million? Right now, Apocalypto's made 50% of what it cost -- better than some movies do, more than others. (And my prediction was wrong, and I'll say that. It wasn't that far wrong, though, and I don't think Apocalypto's suddenly gonna sell tickets like a house on fire, either.) But, frankly, the even more telling statistic isn't Apocalypto's 46% drop-off in box office, which is pretty much a shellacking -- it's the fact that Mel Gibson's prior film before Apocalypto opened to $83 million. And if your last film opened to $83 million and your newest film opened to $15 that, then, makes your new film a flop -- a big, fat flop -- that lands broken and splay-legged on the cold, hard ground of the court of public opinion with the unspinnable thud of incontrovertible fact.
Math is fun,
J.









Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
12-20-2006 @ 11:42AM
bgdc said...
not sure what math you're using that makes Apocalypto out to be a flop. It's made $30 million in the USA alone. Figure about $40 million domestic. Once the rest of the world joins in - action sells better overseas - you should see another $40 million in the bank. Now add in DVD rentals, pay-per-view, HBO, and DVD sales (those number always eclipse theatrical run) and Mel's looking at turning a profit no matter what.
Guess the real question is, why do people want this film to do poorly? Is it because Mel said anti-semitic things? So freaking what. As someone who has celebrated passover, yom, rosh, etc. I don't give a damn about Mel's views of any group. I'm more offended that a convicted childe sex offender like Victor "Jeepers Creepers" Salva (http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0759207/) works with kids or that Roman Polanski wins an Oscar and has never served time for raping a little girl. Or that Tupac Shakur - a convicted sex offender - gets so much positive press.
Let the Gibson hates Jew thing die already. It's silly and worthless to keep bringing it up. Mel made an action movie with subtitles and it'll make him even more money than he already had. I doubt you'd be real unhappy if you made several million in profit on any project.
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12-20-2006 @ 1:02PM
HenryJonesJr said...
Hey James, why would you do an encore to one of the worst posts I've read on this site? Your review was embarrassing enough already. Leave it alone.
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12-20-2006 @ 1:13PM
Chuck Bowen said...
I think Passion of the Christ's success is unprecedented, a fluke and had absolutely nothing to do with the film itself. Comparing Apocalypto to that is apples and oranges. The glee this article takes in its failure is a little obnoxious.
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12-20-2006 @ 2:47PM
Watson said...
I too am a little turned off by this article.
This line in particular was very inaccurate: "Apocalypto's 46% drop-off in box office, which is pretty much a shellacking"
A 46% drop-off is not in the least bit a "shellacking" it is, in fact, extremely common for films to drop off by 50% per week nowadays. Most films do. It's the rare and impressive exceptions that manage to have legs and maintain their business. So Apocalypto may not be exceptional, but that statistic is hardly what you make it out to be.
I guess it just feels like you're desperately pulling at straws to prove your point. The fact is that the film is making back its money faster than many of the other films out there nowadays, so let's give it a little respect.
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12-20-2006 @ 3:03PM
jsa said...
Passion of the Christ made so much money because the theme appealed to so many people worldwide, or haven't you heard of that little known sect called the Christians? How many Mayans are there (or for that matter people who are big into ancient Mayan civilization)? It's unfair to compare Apocalypto to POTC. That'd be like comparing apples to cars.
From the tone of your post, along with the stretch of adding P&A into the cost of the film (which I rarely see you do with other movies that you comment on), you come across as wanting to get in just one more dig at Mel. "Oh, that Mel he said horrible things. Let's keep thinking about it by talking about how the movie's breaking even is really a flop."
Get over it already.
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12-20-2006 @ 3:38PM
jeff said...
Hmmm...Gee, I wonder who has a true personal vendetta against Mel Gibson??!! Thais article is the biggest waste of time, and wreaks of a biased personal attack.
It's interesting that movie critics across the country are giving Mel Gibson major props for Apocolypto. I suppose we should ignore those and instead listen to you.
This article is a joke. I can only sit hear and wonder what 4 OTHER ARTICLES could be in it's place, by dividing up the amount of (negative) energy it took to write this one.
Give Mel Gibson a break already. Okay, we get that you are still upset about his drunken comments. APOCOLYPTO is a wonderful movie. And in case you didn't notice it's the week before Christmas when almost NOBODY is out watching movies in theaters.
Wait till AFTER Christmas. You'll see. Apocolypto is just getting started.
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12-20-2006 @ 3:58PM
Mr. P said...
lol wow...such snarkiness, I could see your evil grin from here while reading. Hate Gibson much?
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12-20-2006 @ 10:50PM
GhaleonQ said...
*grins at responses*
Anyway, do you think that the cinematography, shooting style, story, extreme violence, or themes really resonate with a broad, 18-and-over audience? Really?
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12-21-2006 @ 5:23PM
gadlaw said...
Frankly James, I'm surprised and mad that you would revisit the subject of your recent failure as a movie reviewer. Discretion would have been the better part of valor. Again, and it's been said many times and many ways, your review of the movie is biased and based on your hatred of Mel Gibson. Nothing wrong with hating Mel Gibson or expressing that hatred. But when you mix that with reviewing a movie you loose credibility. On the face of it, your review is completely absurd and everything you have said about the movie has frankly been an embarrassment to you. I'm surprised that there hasn't been an intervention on your behalf from your friends as you continue to embarrass yourself with this subject. All this nonsense about the box office falling and the movie being filmed on video or whatever, you know, it's sad is what it is. You've grasped at straws to try vainly to attack the movie and Mel Gibson as well as trying sadly to try to vindicate every aspect of your wrong opinion by doing a mea culpa on the box office prediction which was as absurd as was everything else you said. I read your subsequent 'reviews' and found no box office predictions, even when I asked for such predictions from you, which only highlights the fact that the Apocalypto prediction was sour grapes and an attack. You know, I did listen to the Cinematical podcast and you didn't sound like an idiot or a ranting fool but calling Apocalypto a 'big, fat flop' is numbing absurd and a reflection on your lack of suitability to be giving informed opinions. As you admitted, box office prognostication isn't your beat, - reviewing movies isn't your beat either. Being upset and angry at Mel Gibson is fine and frankly it would be a good excuse if you decided to apologize for these attacks thinly disguised as reviews. Absent that apology to the readers you've frankly lost my respect.
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1-27-2007 @ 2:11PM
R.Harrison said...
Having just seen APOCALYPTO with much difficulty as my local cinemeas have decided to show it only at the most inconvient times (ie; 9.50 pm, I wonder why?). I must say that it the best picture I have seen for a long time. Although the story, is the usual chase movie, the way its has been told is way above any thing that has gone before. Direction, actors, make up and camera work is excellent. You can imagine what it was like to live in that jungle in those times. Like many of the great films which are a first derided by hollywood and the press, it will become a classic over time, as the public finially get to see it.
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2-27-2007 @ 3:36PM
paul said...
I'm not a "reviewer", haven't studied film at university, or had any particular training where it's concerned...I'm just a person who loves to watch movies--even the bad ones. And this was most definitely a bad movie for many, many different reasons; and these reasons are only relevant to Mel Gibson in that they were his choices as a film-maker--they're not relevant to him personally. Maybe this reviewer doesn't care for Mel Gibson too much, I don't know. But that still doesn't change the fact that this was a really awful movie.
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9-30-2007 @ 3:33AM
D. Mandel said...
I admit I have not seen Mr. Gibson's new movie and as a former fan and Jew I will never see any of his movies again. Dont tell me to get over it either. I have watched his apologies over and over on the television wanting to believe him and only see not only a man who doesnt look directly into the camera or the face of his interviewer but a man who clearly does not have any remorse. Feel sorry for a multi millionaire with a beautiful wife ,so many beautiful healthy children and anything and everthing right in front of his nose, he should apologize to them . Keep this jew hating man away from me and his movies too! I have more important things to worry about like people I care about fighting in this war and good people I know who are fighting cancer. Good bye Mel and I hope more people shun your movies and weak,false apologies.!!
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