Blu-ray to Replace DVDs by 2010?

Almost every weekend I see people on the sidewalks of Brooklyn attempting to sell their used VHS collections. And I get sad -- not for these people desperately trying to make a little extra with their tag sale, but for the poor videotapes that have absolutely no place in the modern world of DVD. I'm often reminded of The Brave Little Toaster and my eyes well up for the poor obsolete items of yesterday. I too have a box of VHS in my closet, but I know there's no use trying to find people who will buy them. But at least I never got into the habit of collecting DVDs, because the currently popular video format will also one day be replaced.

The European chairman for the Blu-ray Disc Association claims that day will come within three years. While addressing the crowd at the CeBIT technology trade show in Germany, he also stated that Blu-ray, not its competitor, HD DVD, will be the format to succeed DVD as the home video standard. Of course, there is no definite front-runner in the hi-density disc format war, and representatives from HD-DVD argued that in terms of sales of movie titles, the two are about even. Blu-ray's reason for declaring a lead is based on sales of Blu-ray players, which include Playstation 3 consoles -- how many PS3 owners do you know who were primarily interested in its ability to play Blu-ray discs?

Blu-ray doesn't even have support from all the movie studios. It does presently have more studios exclusively devoted to its format than does HD DVD, but until it gets Universal and The Weinstein Co. on board, it probably won't be able to top DVD sales. Sure, by 2010 there may be more Blu-ray players sold than DVD players, especially with the popularity of Playstation, yet this would be more likely due to the fact that most homes will already have DVD players. As for actually replacing the current standard, one of the HD brands will have to first win the preliminary format war before moving on to challenging -- and maybe replacing -- the DVD. And the one to move to the final round might not even be Blu-ray or HD-DVD.