Box Office Prediction: You Know It's Thriller ... Thriller Night(s)
Filed under: New Releases, Box Office, Hold the 'Fone, Box Office Predictions
Well, I was a tad overly optimistic about Grindhouse last week, wasn't I? Turns out not that many people want to sit through three hours of zombie gore and vehicular manslaughter. Go figger. This week, just in time for Friday the 13th, we've got loads of movies opening, most of them thrillers. It's doubtful any of them will make a top-25 list of best thrillers, but they should provide for an entertaining weekend nonetheless.
Perfect Stranger
What It's About: A journalist (Halle Berry), suspecting a philandering businessman (Bruce Willis) of killing her friend, poses as an office temp and plays a seductive cat-and-mouse game with him to get at the truth.
Why It Might Do Well: Berry and Willis are big, big stars, each capable of headlining a hit movie on his/her own; and Sony has put some major marketing muscle behind this flick. Plus, Halle Berry is the most beautiful person on the planet. That isn't particularly relevant here, but I thought it needed to be said.
Why It Might Not Do Well: The reviews haven't been great, and it's rated R, which will limit its audience to adults and determined teens with cool parents and/or fake IDs.
Prediction: $15 million
Disturbia
What It's About: Shia LaBeouf stars as a troubled kid who's sentenced to house arrest for acting out in class. Having nothing better to do than spy on his neighbors, he and his friends start to think one of them may be a serial killer. It's kind of like Rear Window, except the protagonist's younger, not in a wheelchair, and, um, under arrest.
Why It Might Do Well: Going head-to-head with Perfect Stranger in the battle of the weekend thrillers, Disturbia has one crucial weapon in its corner: It's rated a teen-friendly PG-13. And LaBeouf's star is on the rise: Not only will he star in two big animated movies this year (Transformers and Surf's Up), but he's also just been tapped to co-star with Harrison Ford in the fourth Indiana Jones movie.
Why It Might Not Do Well: While he's certainly an up-and-comer, Shia's still no Bruce Willis. The biggest names besides LaBeouf are Carrie-Anne Moss (as his mom -- I don't know why this depresses me, but it does) and David Morse as the maybe-murderous neighbor.
Prediction: $15 million
Also Opening Wide: Redline (poor man's Fast and the Furious, starring Eddie Griffin), Pathfinder (Viking flick based on a graphic novel, starring Karl Urban), Aqua Teen Hunger Force Colon Movie Film for Theaters (big-screen version of the cultish Adult Swim show about talking fast-food items; opens on only 877 screens, and apparently you will either not get this movie at all or think it's the greatest thing since McDonald's fries), and Slow Burn (Ray Liotta and LL Cool J in a thriller-type crime drama).
Last week, two of our kickass readers tied for the top spot: Gilbert Davis and Bubba8193, both of whom correctly thought Grindhouse would underperform -- but even they didn't predict that it would finish as low as fourth. All you guys who put it way up in the top spot, hey, I was right there with you.
Get picks in by 5pm Saturday, everyone. And then do your taxes. Priorities, people!
My Weekend Prediction
1. Disturbia
2. Perfect Stranger
3. Blades of Glory
4. Meet the Robinsons
5. Are We Done Yet?
Last Week's Prediction Results
1. Gilbert Davis: 12
1. Bubba8193: 12
3. Patricia:9
3. Evilone1414: 9
5. Sarah: 8
6. Stuart: 7
6. Chris: 7
6. Mario: 7
9. MikeVGB: 5
10. Thad: 4
10. MrPKI: 4
10. Trish: 4
Edited because Transformers is not, in fact, an animated movie.









Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-13-2007 @ 2:26PM
Zach said...
I think you're underestimating the power of Aqua Teen...I'm not saying that it'll be #1, but it may break the top 5. OR maybe I'm just saying that in desperate hope that Are We Dane Yet will make absolutely no money this weekend so that Ice-Cube is forced to retire from acting forever.
Reply
4-13-2007 @ 4:20PM
Stuart said...
1. Distubia
2. Blades of Glory
3. Perfect Stranger
4. Are We Done Yet
5. Meet the Robinsons
6. Aqua Teen Hunger Force Colon Movie For Theaters
7. Grindhouse
8. The Reaping
9. 300
10. Shooter
Reply
4-13-2007 @ 7:30PM
isaac said...
1. Disturbia
2. Blades of glory
3. Meet the robinsons
4. Perfect stranger
5. Are we done yet?
Reply
4-13-2007 @ 11:49PM
MrPKI said...
1. Disturbia
2. Perfect Stranger
3. Blades of Glory
4. Meet the Robinsons
5. Aqua Teen Hunger Force
Reply
4-14-2007 @ 12:20AM
Evilone1414 said...
My Predictions:
1)Disturbia
2)Blades of Glory
3)Meet the Robinsons
4)Perfect Stranger
5)Are we Done yet?
Reply
4-14-2007 @ 11:33AM
Gilbert Davis said...
I think 'Hey guys it's Bubba8193!' and I are both waiting for the chicken bones to dry before we put them in a ancient yatzee cup, mumble a few words and shake them out with our various movie predictions. It's a weak week of openers and although I don't understand it, Blades of Glory should stay on top. It's still got the most screens along with the other family friendly Meet the Robinson's. I'll go with Disturbia over Perfect Strangers just because I've seen more trailers for that one than Bruce's movie and Bruce fans aren't going to go see him be all evil and grim faced when Die Hard 4 trailers are out and Bruce fans can see the arse kicking guy they love soon. (yippie ki yah nostalgia) And of course, Ice Cube has to be the John Gielgud of our day, just kidding. I'd like to see Pathfinder crack the top ten cause you can't have enough movies with buff guys and swords.
1. Blades of Glory
2. Meet the Robinson's
3. Disturbia
4. Perfect Strangers
5. Are We Done Yet?
Reply
4-14-2007 @ 6:58PM
Bubba8193 said...
Hey guys, it's Bubba8193! I know I'm 2 hours late posting this (ahh!!) but I'm still on Spring Break, sooo sue me...Hopefully you'll accept the late entry....???
1)Disturbia
2)Blades of Glory
3)Perfect Stranger
4)Meet The Robinsons
5)Are We Done Yet?
Reply
4-14-2007 @ 6:58PM
Mario said...
1. Disturbia
2. Perfect Stranger
3. Blades of Glory
4. Meet the Robinsons
5. Are We Done Yet?
Reply
4-15-2007 @ 10:01AM
Carlos said...
Patricia, curiosity compels me to ask: Why did you write, "Berry and Willis are big, big stars, each capable of headlining a hit movie on his/her own"? Please, identify the last huge hit movie that one or the other headlined?
I'm not trying to be personally critical here. I'm just tired of film writers lazily predicting big boffo box office numbers for movies simply because they star a name they've heard of before. Not even the general public is that simple-minded. I should think that the equation: big stars automatically = big opening numbers, has been suitably disproven by now.
Reply
4-15-2007 @ 11:46AM
Patricia Chui said...
Carlos: That's a fair question. What I meant was that of the movies opening wide this weekend, only Perfect Stranger boasts any kind of star wattage -- and while that's no guarantee that a movie will do well, it's a factor (along with reviews, story, buzz, etc.), particularly during the first weekend. Heck, look at Premonition, which got horrible reviews but earned $17.5 million when it opened, largely on the strength of Sandra Bullock's star appeal. As for movies starring, say, Halle Berry, even the much-derided Catwoman earned $16.7 million on its opening weekend.
Anyway, my point was (is) that any movie opening wide has the potential to do well or to bomb, and I try to highlight the reasons either could happen. In the case of Perfect Stranger, IF it's going to perform well, then word of mouth probably isn't going to get it done; it's more likely that the star factor -- which helps with the marketing, of course -- will have something to do with it. (Note that I predicted just $15 million for Perfect Stranger, which only qualifies as "strong" on a weak weekend like this one.)
Hope that answers your question. Thanks for the comment!
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