Box Office Prediction: April Is the Cruelest Month

Filed under: New Releases, Box Office, Hold the 'Fone, Box Office Predictions

What up, movie peeps? First, let's see what happened with last week's predict 'em game. When the dust cleared Sunday, the final top five looked like this:

1. Disturbia - $13.5 million
2. Fracture - $11.2 million
3. Blades of Glory - $7.8 million
4. Vacancy - $7.6 million
5. Meet the Robinsons - $7.1 million

Our winner? Evilone1414, who, just like a certain movie about a teenaged peeping tom, was king of the hill for the second week in a row -- getting every pick right except for reversing the order of Vacancy and Meet the Robinsons. Evil rules! As for myself, I finished dead last ... again. Looks like this week -- the notorious Last Weekend of April, not known for its high-quality fare (last year's No. 1: RV) -- I may need the services of someone who can actually see the future. Now, who would that be?

Nicolas Cage in NextNext
What It's About: Nicolas Cage stars as a small-time clairvoyant magician and card shark who, after having a vision of L.A. being annihilated, must decide whether or not to use his power for good.
Why It Might Do Well: It's an incredibly weak field of movies this weekend, with everyone getting out of the way of the advancing Spider-Man juggernaut. Next is the only standout in terms of marketing and expectations, and Nicolas Cage is certainly a draw (just look at Ghost Rider).
Why It Might Not Do Well: Reason number one would have to be Cage's hair, which is giving Tom Hanks' unfortunate 'do in The Da Vinci Code a run for its money. Help me think of a name for this hairstyle: the Emo Phillips? Reason number two: The film's pretty generic as far as action movies go, and probably wouldn't be a blip on anyone's radar were it opening in any month other than April.
Prediction: $14 million

Justin Chatwin in The InvisibleThe Invisible
What It's About: Justin Chatwin plays a kid who's attacked and left for dead; hovering in an almost-dead-guy limbo, he fights to figure out a way to re-enter the land of the living.
Why It Might Do Well: This movie should supplant Disturbia in terms of the "teens who like thrillers" demographic.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Chatwin's a rising star, but he's not an actual star yet -- he's still better known as "that kid from War of the Worlds." Also, see "April, Last Weekend of."
Prediction: $7 million

The CondemnedThe Condemned
What It's About: Convict Jack Conrad (former wrestler Stone Cold Steve Austin) is released from death row, only to be sent to a desert island with nine other murderers; last guy standing gets to live. It's Prison Break meets Survivor meets The Running Man.
Why It Might Do Well: Consider the awesomeness of a) the lead actor's name, b) the poster's tagline: "10 People Will Fight. 9 People Will Die. You Get to Watch." Seriously, though, wrestling fans could give this one some legs. The Marine, which featured former WWE star John Cena, earned $7.1 million in its opening weekend, and that could be enough to break the top five this weekend.
Why It Might Not Do Well: That thing I said about the poster. Also, it's the weekend's only R-rated film. Aaaand ... see "April, Last Weekend of."
Prediction: $5 million

Also opening wide: Kickin' It Old Skool, in which Jamie Kennedy plays a break-dancer who wakes up from a 20-year coma. Bust it!

I predict, you predict, we all predict. C'mon, everybody's doing it -- give it your best shot. But no pressure or anything. (Prediction deadline: Saturday at 6pm, if you please.)

My Weekend Prediction:
1. Next
2. Disturbia
3. The Invisible
4. Fracture
5. Blades of Glory

Last Week's Prediction Rankings
1. Evilone1414: 12
2. Fmj: 9
2. Bubba8193: 9
2. Chris: 9
2. Stuart: 9
3. Mario: 8
4. Patricia: 7

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