Box Office Prediction: Will Spidey Beat Pirates?

by Patricia Chui May 4th 2007 // 1:31PM

Filed under: New Releases, Box Office, Hold the 'Fone, Box Office Predictions, Summer Movies

Last week, our old pal bubba8193 triumphed against evilone1414 and rose to the top of the leaderboard, perfectly predicting the following box office top five:

1. Disturbia - $9.1 million.
2. The Invisible - $7.6 million.
3. Next - $7.2 million.
4. Fracture - $7.1 million.
5. Blades of Glory - $5.2 million

Oh, I could talk about how surprising it was for Disturbia to three-peat, or how even Nicolas Cage couldn't save a dud like Next (or maybe it's the other way around?), but why linger on last week when we're face-to-face with the first weekend of the summer movie season? Say hello, everyone. There's a teeny-tiny little movie launching on this most special day -- you may have heard of it.

Tobey Maguire in Spider-Man 3Spider-Man 3
What It's About: Just when everything's going gangbusters for Peter Parker -- the city loves Spider-Man, he's got a hot girlfriend -- an alien black goo gloms onto him, turns his suit black and makes him think he's a badass. Meanwhile, three villains mobilize against him: Flint Marko, Uncle Ben's actual murderer, who escapes from prison and is molecularized into Sandman; Eddie Brock, a rival photographer who also gets infected with the goo and turns into the toothy, maniacal Venom; and Peter's old friend Harry Osborn, aka New Goblin, who's still intent on avenging his father's death.
Why It Might Do Well: Might do well? Really the question here is: Will it break the domestic record for biggest box-office opening ever? The figure to aim for is $135.6 million, the amount earned by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest last July. Spider-Man 3 faces much less competition than Pirates did, and it's opening on a record 4,252 screens; on the other hand, some of the earliest buzz from the blogosphere has been mixed. But Spidey is review-proof -- and at any rate, most agree that the action in this film is better than ever.
Why It Might Not Do Well: There could be a nationwide blackout. Aliens could land on Earth and insist that all theaters be dedicated to showing their home movies. The possibilities are endless, really.
Prediction: $138 million

Drew Barrymore and Eric Bana in Lucky YouLucky You
What It's About: Eric Bana plays Huck, a professional gambler who can't seem to hold onto anything -- love, money or his relationship with his father (Robert Duvall), a legendary poker player. Huck's attempts to get a seat at the World Series of Poker coincide with his meeting a cute, poker-ignorant singer Billie (Drew Barrymore) and warily reuniting with his estranged dad.
Why It Might Do Well: People who have no interest in seeing Spider-Man may head for this film, which was directed by Curtis Hanson (L.A. Confidential). And those who love Eric Bana, poker and Vegas (I'm guilty and I'm proud) will find plenty to enjoy here.
Why It Might Not Do Well: There's a lot of poker in it. A looooot of poker, which the generally weak reviews have noted. And while Barrymore can headline a hit movie, she's just a sidenote to this story; Bana isn't a big enough star yet to drive crowds to the theaters. Oh, and also, um ... Spider-Man 3.
Prediction: $8 million

Which movie will finish first this weekend? Think, think ... Predict by Saturday at 5pm, please, and for extra credit, throw in your projected returns while you're at it. But all comments are welcome: Will you be seeing Spider-Man 3 this weekend? And if you've already seen it, what did you think?

Incidentally, if you just ... can't ... stop predicting the box office, check out our cool new rank 'em game as part of our fancy-schmancy summer movies package. It's visual! No icky typing required.

My Top Five Prediction
1. Spider-Man 3 - $138 million
2. Lucky You - $8 million
3. Disturbia - $5 million
4. Fracture - $4 million
5. The Invisible - $4 million

Last Week's Prediction Rankings
1. Bubba8193: 16
2. Patricia: 9
2. Tigerfan2014: 9
2. Adam c: 9
2. Mario: 9
6. Chris: 8
6. Ray: 8
8. Evilone1414:7
9. Jessica Ferrara: 5
10. MrPKI: 4

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Tags: box office, box office forecast, box office prediction, BoxOffice, BoxOfficeForecast, BoxOfficePrediction, lucky you, LuckyYou, new movies, NewMovies, spider-man 3, Spider-man3

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