Box Office Prediction: Flipping the 'Third'

Lesson for the day: Never listen to my friend Kevin. Last week, he insisted to me that Delta Farce had no shot of making the top five, and that The Ex, for all its flaws, was a shoo-in for the fifth spot. "But, Larry the Cable Guy!" I said. "He's got ... fans! Or something." Nah, he said, go with The Ex. So I did, and as it turned out, I was wrong. Wrong, the opposite of right. (If you got that movie quote, you're my new best friend.) Here's how it shook out:

1. Spider-Man 3 - $60 million
2. 28 Weeks Later - $10 million
3. Georgia Rule - $5.9 million
4. Disturbia - $4.8 million
5. Delta Farce - $3.5 million

Two of our posters, being undistracted by The Kevin, achieved perfect scores last week: three-peater bubba8193 (ho-hum, dominance is just SO boring, isn't it?) and chris (welcome to the top, dawg!). But enough about piddling $3 million movies. (The Ex, for the record, earned $1.4 million and didn't even make the top ten.) Move over, Spidey, there's a new green goblin -- umm, ogre -- in town ...

Shrek the Third
What It's About: The big green guy (Mike Myers) finds himself heir to the throne when his father-in-law, King Harold, kicks the bucket. Trouble is, Shrek wants no part of this king business, so he sets off to find Fiona's cousin Artie (Justin Timberlake), who might be up for it instead -- or he would, if he weren't already reigning as King of the High School Losers (Never Made It With the Ladies). Meanwhile, Prince Charming (Rupert Everett) mobilizes a team of villains so that he can take the throne for himself.
Why It Might Do Well: It's the only blockbuster opening this weekend -- in fact, the only movie opening wide, period -- so that's kind of a no-brainer. Plus, as the summer's first true family film (it's rated PG, whereas Spider-Man 3 is rated PG-13), it will certainly overtake Spidey for the No. 1 spot.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Shrek earned $42 million its opening weekend; Shrek 2 an astonishing $108 million, setting a record for biggest opening for an animated film. Will this third installment shatter its own record? It could ... or it's possible audiences might be suffering from a little bit of Shrek fatigue.
Prediction: $110 million

My picks below. Get in the game! Post your top five by 5pm Saturday -- or your brilliant musings on Shrek and all things box office, any ol' time you like.

1. Shrek the Third
2. Spider-Man 3
3. 28 Weeks Later
4. Georgia Rule
5. Disturbia

Last Week's Prediction Rankings:
1. Bubba8193: 16
1. Chris: 16
3. Patricia: 13
4. Ray: 12
5. Tigerfan2014: 11
6. MrPKI: 9
6. Mario: 9
8. Evilone1414: 8
9. Astrogirl: 6

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