Box Office Prediction: Heists, Ice and Vice

As a wise man (that'd be Steve Malkmus, lead singer of Pavement) once said, "Aloha means goodbye, and also hello; it is in how you inflect." Which is my way of telling you that this is my last box office prediction for a while -- please! try to hold back your tears! -- because, starting next week, I'll be handing the reins over to the lovely and talented Matt Bradshaw. Treat him good. One thing I do know: His prediction percentage is bound to be better than mine, which I believe hovered around 3 percent.

Last week:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - $43.2 million
2. Knocked Up - $29.3 million
3. Shrek the Third - $26.7 million
4. Mr. Brooks - $10 million
5. Spider-Man 3 - $7.5 million

Our winners: Chris and Ray, both of whom alertly picked the hilarious Knocked Up to slide past Shrek for the number 2 spot -- though pretty much nobody foresaw that Kevin Costner, Serial Killer, would wind up playing so well in Peoria. Anyway, mad props to Chris and Ray, neither of whom, I am sure, resemble Robin Williams' knuckles. (And if you didn't get that reference, go see Knocked Up.)

Ocean's Thirteen
What It's About: The boys are back in town -- Vegas, that is -- and this time they're out for revenge. Reuben (Elliott Gould), having been screwed over and pretty much bankrupted by hotelier Willie Banks (Al Pacino, looking very bronze), suffers a heart attack and is catatonic; so Danny (George Clooney), Rusty (Brad Pitt) and the rest hatch a plan to put Banks' new hotel and casino out of business.
Why It Might Do Well: If the cast of Ocean's doesn't define "starpower," then I don't know what does. All the actors from the incredibly popular first two films (sans Julia Roberts and Catherine Zeta-Jones) return, and, like Ocean's Eleven, this movie's more fun than oughta be legal.
Why It Might Not Do Well: We're in the thick of summer blockbuster season now, and competition's fierce: Pirates is still doing strong, and it'll pull more of a family crowd than Ocean's. Also, it's possible that those who were disappointed by Ocean's Twelve may not have forgiven Steven Soderbergh yet. (Me, I kind of haven't forgiven him for Bubble, but that's another story.)
Prediction: $40 million

Surf's Up
What It's About: Fledgling surfer (and penguin) Cody Maverick (Shia LaBeouf) heads for a surfing competition to see if he can compete with the big ... err, birds; but he'll need some help along the way from a reclusive mentor (Jeff Bridges). Think Happy Feet meets Blue Crush meets North Shore meets The Karate Kid.
Why It Might Do Well: Family movie. Penguins. CUTE penguins. (Is that redundant?) It's also pretty funny, and the CGI is definitely cool.
Why It Might Not Do Well: It has to compete with both Pirates and Shrek, and though Shia LaBeouf is having one hot (and busy) spring/summer, he may not be a big enough name to elevate this movie to true break-the-bank status.
Prediction: $26 million

Hostel: Part II
What It's About: Naive American students in Europe get tortured. Some more.
Why It Might Do Well: Its gruesome predecessor was a surprise hit, earning $19.6 million over its opening weekend and $47.3 million overall. Why should this sequel -- which looks to be pretty much the exact same movie -- be any different?
Why It Might Not Do Well: Sure, $19.5 million is all well and good in January, but it's not good enough for No. 1 in the middle of the summer. And other recent horror films haven't performed particularly well.
Prediction: $13 million

And now, my parting prediction. Drumroll! Lights! Camera! Aaaaaction!

My Weekend Top Five Prediction
1. Ocean's Thirteen
2. Surf's Up
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
4. Knocked Up
5. Shrek the Third

Please post your picks by Saturday at 5pm. A reminder about scoring: One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie. But as this'll be Matt's gig going forward, he may change things up a bit -- I'll look forward to seeing what he does. Heck, I may even post a prediction myself, should I miss the humiliation.

Good luck, all!

Last Week's Prediction Rankings
1. Chris: 12
1. Ray: 12
3. Dylan: 11
3. Gregory Rubinstein: 11
3. Abe: 11
6. Patricia: 8
6. Mario: 8
6. CTag: 8
9. Dave U: 6