Box Office Prediction: The Almighty Stephen King
Filed under: Comedy, Drama, Horror, Remakes and Sequels, Box Office Predictions
The bankability of superhero flicks was proven once again this past weekend, with Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer taking the number one spot on its opening weekend and pushing Ocean's 13 down to number two. Sleeper hit Knocked Up refused to budge from its number three position and may require a Caesarean section. Here's last weekend's top five:
1. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer: $57.4 million
2. Ocean's Thirteen: $19.1 million
3. Knocked Up: $14.5 million
4. Pirates of the Caribbean At World's End: $12 million
5. Surf's Up: $9.3 million
Six of the twelve people who made predictions on last weekend's box office, including yours truly, earned perfect scores. I won't be letting this early success go to my head since last week saw only two films going into wide release and Nancy Drew never struck me as Top 5 material. This coming weekend will see the arrival of three films that are very different from each other, making the competition all the more interesting. Here's what we've got:
1408
What's It About: Based on a short story by the grand master of contemporary horror fiction Stephen King. John Cusack plays a debunker of paranormal phenomena who decides to spend a night in room 1408 of a New York City hotel, a room in which 56 mysterious deaths have occurred over the years, and no one has ever lasted more than an hour. Do you think anyone checked for a gas leak?
Why It Might Do Well: Cusack is joined by Samuel L. Jackson, an actor who automatically ups the cool level of any movie he's in, and even King himself liked this adaptation of his work.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Blowing a short story up to feature length requires a lot of padding, so how much of the author's work is left? Also, this summer's last big horror release Hostel II took a box office bath, so maybe audiences aren't looking for scares just now.
Number of Theaters: 2,500
Prediction: $50 million
Evan Almighty
What's It About: In this comedic sequel to Bruce Almighty, God (Morgan Freeman) commands Congressman Evan Baxter (Steve Carell) to build an ark in preparation for a great flood.
Why It Might Do Well: Carell is one funny S.O.B who proved with The 40-Year-Old-Virgin (which pulled in $109 million domestic) that he can carry a film to big box-office numbers.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Reviews have not been promising, with the film scoring only 27% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Number of Theaters: 3,500
Prediction: $25 million
A Mighty Heart
What's It About: Based on true events, Angelina Jolie plays Mariane Pearl, wife of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl who was kidnapped and eventually murdered while tracking down a story in Karachi, Pakistan.
Why It Might Do Well: Angelina Jolie is still very much on the A List, and the film looks like a thought-provoking alternative to everything else out there.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Summer movies are traditionally big on fun and fluff, which definitely does not describe this serious human drama.
Number of Theaters: 1,350 (considerably fewer than this week's other two releases)
Prediction: $8 million
Since my garage-sale crystal ball did so well for me last week, once again I will use it to peer into the future. I find I get the best reception while standing on my coffee table while wearing an aluminum foil helmet and with Roger Ebert's Movie Yearbook 2005 tucked under one arm. Go figure. Here's my prediction for the coming weekend:
1. 1408
2. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
3. Evan Almighty
4. Knocked Up
5. Pirates of the Caribbean At World's End
Last Week's Prediction Rankings:
1. Matt: 16
1. Opp-Neg: 16
1. Chris: 16
1. Brad B: 16
1. Ray: 16
1. Bubba8193: 16
7. Tangoeco: 12
7. Gregory Rubenstein: 12
7. Tigerfan2014: 12
10. Los118: 11
11. Mario: 9
12. Ethan Stanislawski: 7
As always, please post your box office predictions by 5:00 PM on Saturday. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie. Make me proud, people.
1. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer: $57.4 million
2. Ocean's Thirteen: $19.1 million
3. Knocked Up: $14.5 million
4. Pirates of the Caribbean At World's End: $12 million
5. Surf's Up: $9.3 million
Six of the twelve people who made predictions on last weekend's box office, including yours truly, earned perfect scores. I won't be letting this early success go to my head since last week saw only two films going into wide release and Nancy Drew never struck me as Top 5 material. This coming weekend will see the arrival of three films that are very different from each other, making the competition all the more interesting. Here's what we've got:
1408What's It About: Based on a short story by the grand master of contemporary horror fiction Stephen King. John Cusack plays a debunker of paranormal phenomena who decides to spend a night in room 1408 of a New York City hotel, a room in which 56 mysterious deaths have occurred over the years, and no one has ever lasted more than an hour. Do you think anyone checked for a gas leak?
Why It Might Do Well: Cusack is joined by Samuel L. Jackson, an actor who automatically ups the cool level of any movie he's in, and even King himself liked this adaptation of his work.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Blowing a short story up to feature length requires a lot of padding, so how much of the author's work is left? Also, this summer's last big horror release Hostel II took a box office bath, so maybe audiences aren't looking for scares just now.
Number of Theaters: 2,500
Prediction: $50 million
Evan AlmightyWhat's It About: In this comedic sequel to Bruce Almighty, God (Morgan Freeman) commands Congressman Evan Baxter (Steve Carell) to build an ark in preparation for a great flood.
Why It Might Do Well: Carell is one funny S.O.B who proved with The 40-Year-Old-Virgin (which pulled in $109 million domestic) that he can carry a film to big box-office numbers.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Reviews have not been promising, with the film scoring only 27% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Number of Theaters: 3,500
Prediction: $25 million
A Mighty HeartWhat's It About: Based on true events, Angelina Jolie plays Mariane Pearl, wife of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl who was kidnapped and eventually murdered while tracking down a story in Karachi, Pakistan.
Why It Might Do Well: Angelina Jolie is still very much on the A List, and the film looks like a thought-provoking alternative to everything else out there.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Summer movies are traditionally big on fun and fluff, which definitely does not describe this serious human drama.
Number of Theaters: 1,350 (considerably fewer than this week's other two releases)
Prediction: $8 million
Since my garage-sale crystal ball did so well for me last week, once again I will use it to peer into the future. I find I get the best reception while standing on my coffee table while wearing an aluminum foil helmet and with Roger Ebert's Movie Yearbook 2005 tucked under one arm. Go figure. Here's my prediction for the coming weekend:
1. 1408
2. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
3. Evan Almighty
4. Knocked Up
5. Pirates of the Caribbean At World's End
Last Week's Prediction Rankings:
1. Matt: 16
1. Opp-Neg: 16
1. Chris: 16
1. Brad B: 16
1. Ray: 16
1. Bubba8193: 16
7. Tangoeco: 12
7. Gregory Rubenstein: 12
7. Tigerfan2014: 12
10. Los118: 11
11. Mario: 9
12. Ethan Stanislawski: 7
As always, please post your box office predictions by 5:00 PM on Saturday. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie. Make me proud, people.









Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
6-20-2007 @ 4:33PM
carlomarx said...
$50 million for 1408? Really?
Reply
6-21-2007 @ 4:11AM
Ian said...
What carlomarx said.
1408 will be lucky if it tops $20 million.
Reply
6-21-2007 @ 7:16AM
DW said...
No way 1408 does that kind of BO. Here's my prediction:
1. Evan Almighty - $48 million
2. Fantastic Four ROTSS - $23 million
3. 1408 - $20 million
4. Knocked Up - $8 million
5. Pirates of the Caribbean - $5 million
Reply
6-21-2007 @ 10:22AM
Ralph said...
The horror/scare flicks seem to do better during the winter months for some reason; got to agree with the comments above.
EVAN will probably be a breakout hit, per se, at least in its opening weekend. Why? Kids. Every kid I know under 12 wants to go see this movie.
And if you go to Rotten Tomatoes, you'll see the critics page is at 15% fresh, but the User Reviews give it an 80% fresh. The ones knocking it seem to because of the lack of Jim Carrey, so they're not really reviewing the film but are mad because of the lack of the first film's star (and is this really a sequel? one continuing character (in Evan) and God (sure, played again by Morgan Freeman, but don't tell me every movie with God in it is a series). (Hey, that'd make for a good article -- how many movies featuring God as portrayed by a human character?)
Regardless, EVAN is going to dominate the box office this weekend. I'm taking my family on Friday afternoon, just about every dad and mom in the neighborhood I've spoken with are planning on going this weekend as well, with all their kids.
Reply
6-21-2007 @ 11:16AM
NPC said...
1. Evan Almighty - $39 million
2. Fantastic Four - $24 million
3. 1408 - $19 million
4. Oceans 13 - $12 million
5. Knocked Up - $9 million
Gene Shalit Style Predictions:
+ Knocked up knocks out Pirates from the Top 5.
+ Stephen is not King of the weekend boxoffice.
Reply
6-21-2007 @ 12:22PM
Opp-Neg said...
1. Evan Almighty - $45 million
2. Fantastic Four - $28 million
3. 1408 - $20 million
4. Oceans 13 - $17 million
5. Knocked Up - $9 million
Reply
6-21-2007 @ 12:57PM
Anna07 said...
1. Evan Almighty
2. Fantastic 4:ROTSS
3. 1408
4. Ocean's 13
5. Knocked Up
Reply
6-21-2007 @ 10:35PM
Ray said...
1. Evan Almighty
2. Fantastic Four
3. 1408
4. Ocean's 13
5. Knocked Up
Not exactly going out on a limb, here, but not way does 1408 break $30 mil this weekend. By now, all the kids have seen Shrek 3, Surf's Up, and Pirates 3. Evan Almighty has the kiddies all to itself.
Reply
6-22-2007 @ 12:14PM
Chris said...
1) Evan Almighty
2) Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
3) 1408
4) Knocked Up
5) Ocean's Thirteen
Reply
6-22-2007 @ 1:38PM
Gregory Rubinstein said...
I think Matt Bradshaw is overestimating the power of 1408, but the above people are underestimating it.
1. Evan Almighty - $40 Million
2. 1408 - $25 Million
3. Fantastic Four: ROTSS - $18 Million
4. Ocean's 13 - $10 Million
5. Knocked Up - $9 Million
Reply
6-22-2007 @ 5:11PM
Ethan Stanislawski said...
1. Evan Almighty
2. 1408
3. Knocked Up
4. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
5. Ocean's 13
Reply
6-22-2007 @ 10:05PM
Bradley Thom said...
Here's my top five prediction for this week:
1. 1408
2. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
3. Evan Almighty
4. Ocean's 13
5. Knocked Up
Reply
6-23-2007 @ 8:55AM
Mario said...
1. Evan Almighty
2. 1408
3. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
4. Knocked Up
5. A Mighty Heart
Reply
6-23-2007 @ 4:36PM
Bubba8193 said...
Here are my predictions for the week...
1)Evan Almighty
2)1408
3)Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
4)Ocean's Thirteen
5)Knocked Up
Also, $50m for '1408'!? I say it'll make somewhere near $20m...
Reply