Sore Loser? Bill Gates Declares Downloads Are the Future, Not Hi-Def DVD
Filed under: Tech Stuff, Distribution, Home Entertainment
Warner Brothers' decision to side with Blu-Ray has caused early HD-DVD adopters to feel like losers while Blu-Ray supporters are gleefully congratulating themselves for their great foresight. On the assumption that the format wars are actually over -- not everybody agrees -- you might think this would be the final nail in the coffin for Bill Gates. He's already halfway out the door at HD-DVD backer Microsoft, but multi-billionaire Bill has always been a positive thinker.When USA Today asked for his reaction, he replied in part: "HD DVD did well over the holidays. The other trend we're seeing is that direct download over broadband - I think the greatest example of that is XBox Live - (is) becoming an important choice. Over time, that will be the dominant way that people get their movies."
Is he trying to say everybody loses? I think he's just acknowledging that high-def DVD is only a stopgap measure. The format wars may or may not have fostered innovation and lower hardware prices, but the elephant in the room has been downloading over broadband, an idea whose time has finally (apparently) come. In addition to XBox Live, Netflix recently announced a deal with LG for a new download box, Apple is talking about renting movies through iTunes, Sony is hinting they'll roll out something similar to XBox Live for the Playstation 3 this year, and so on and so on.
Why does this matter for movie fans? Beyond the obvious, if you have an interest in non-blockbusters and don't live in one of a handful of big cities, movie downloading holds the prospect of opening up the playing field to smaller distributors and independent filmmakers. Right now we tend to look down on films that go straight to DVD (or iTunes), but if Radiohead can make a success of a completely independent release structure, why can't filmmakers?









Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1-08-2008 @ 10:37AM
Peter Hall said...
Hardly a sore loser, this has been Gates/Microsoft's stance on the issue for some time now. It is precisely why they opted, again and again, not to integrate an HD DVD drive into the 360.
Think of all the money they are simultaneously saving and making. They merely provide a bonus service to hardware they were already manufacturing and then charge studios to sell their films/TV shows over their service and then charge consumers the ability to even access them and then further charge them if they want to actually rent them. They have effectively become the middle man themselves and yet have become so crucial to the process that their position is, at this point, unassailable.
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1-08-2008 @ 11:49AM
Philip said...
Well not to be disagreeable Peter, but Microsoft has been a big pain in the butt about downloads as of late. They create PlaysforSure technology, which is adopted by many download sites and MP3 player manufacturers, then it's promptly discontinued by Microsoft. Not to mention their waffling on the dog we all love to kick, DRM. Which Steve Jobs accurately described as, and I'm paraphrasing, a waste of time. But on Bill's point about downloads, I agree. I said as much in a separate post, where we'll see it in the form of set-top boxes on your TV. And it'll be some form of junk with competing technologies against Apple and so forth, until all the big heads decide to get together and unify one standard so they can all get rich at the same rate.
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1-08-2008 @ 12:01PM
Philip said...
As an addendum:
http://www.paidcontent.org/entry/419-paramount-ready-to-defect-from-hd-dvd-to-blu-ray-report/
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1-08-2008 @ 1:18PM
Chupacabra said...
Michael Bay was right!!!
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1-08-2008 @ 1:27PM
WillTheSecond said...
"Michael Bay was right!!!"
I think in part he probably was. Certainly Microsoft is more interested in digital distribution than HD-DVD. If Blu-Ray wins (as seems likely now) it will only be a stop gap for digital distribution, which seems increasingly to be the choice.
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1-08-2008 @ 2:13PM
MrHobo said...
I wonder if anyone bothered to rip a HD-DVD or Blu-Ray disc to their computer? With some poorly done codecs, you're lucky to have a file less than 8 GB.
Now, assuming everyone has 100 Mbit download speeds, that's not too bad, only a few minutes of downloading... but download speeds like that across the US are years away. No way HD downloadable content is going to be popular for at least five years at that rate.... and people still want HD.
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1-08-2008 @ 2:51PM
thomas logic said...
Yeah maybe downloads will be the norm' in like 10 - 15 years time. But the entry 360 skew doesn't have a hard drive and all 360s use 10/100s MB nics so downloading a high def movie probably takes a little bit and forget live streaming of multiple channels. Maybe if they didn't cloak the 360 in DRM hell as well. But most people like to own a disc don't they? I do.
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1-08-2008 @ 3:09PM
Irondude said...
How do you region code digital downloads? Are all the studios going to let the people download movies online before they have even been released in their country? This is just one of a dozen problems with this technology.
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1-08-2008 @ 3:19PM
Peter Hall said...
Philip, I'm not defending Microsoft for all of their habits regarding downloading, but when it comes to the digital delivery service in question (X-Box Live), they're killing it.
Mr Hobo, Both HD DVD and BRDs have been ripped (though the new BRD+ has not been entirely circumvented, yet) for a while. A film less than 2 hours can be clocked in at around 5 gigs. Given proper distribution methods, this is a very manageable file size (though even 3 years ago, not many would agree with that). Now if Microsoft were to decentralize their servers via an encrypted, tracked bit-torrent protocol, they could even further cut back server and bandwidth costs for getting the content out there.
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1-08-2008 @ 3:25PM
eugene said...
woot, a future where we own nothing and license everything! Can't wait!
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1-08-2008 @ 9:40PM
MrHobo said...
Peter,
I am quite aware that both have been ripped since spring of last year. That was just an open question to anyone here. And two things: you'd be hard pressed to find any good movie under two hours, and even then, 5 GB is small for a movie in full HD. My copy of Casino Royale is 12.3 GB, and still has somewhat poor quality video in most action sequences because of the encoding. Fortunately I still have my Blu-Ray copy that I can watch on my PS3.
I have to agree with you about how they're killing it with Live, though. I especially love Gates' comment, "The other trend we're seeing is that direct download over broadband - I think the greatest example of that is XBox Live..." It will be amusing when he actually chokes on the crap coming out of his mouth someday.
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