For the third year in a row, I'm turning to my favorite Oscar predictor of all: my kid brother Stephen. He's not really a kid anymore (he's 25 now), but he still has the funniest Oscar picks around. He's also not a very accurate predictor, since only two of his picks from last year were correct. But that doesn't matter -- I like his rants about the films that weren't nominated and should win even better than the picks he makes that are limited to actual nominations. How many other people have you heard complaining that Michelle Pfeiffer and Josh Brolin were robbed ... and in the case of Brolin, not for No Country for Old Men, either.

I managed to get Stephen on the phone for more than five minutes running, which is a difficult feat, and we had a lively discussion about this year's Oscar nominees, as well as the films and talent who weren't recognized by the Academy this year. My only disappointment is that I can't get him very interested in documentaries -- with one notable exception, as you'll see. I'm not good at predicting Oscars, but before I got Stephen on the phone, I predicted which nominees he would pick for Oscars this year, and I was right in every non-actress category (he's extremely particular about actresses).


Best Picture: No Country for Old Men

No Country for Old Men -- I felt like I was watching a new type of movie, something I've never seen before. The characters were cool, I was left in the dark about things, there was a lot of suspense and I really enjoyed that.

Not nominated but should have won: The King of Kong

It felt like a mockumentary but it was better than any mockumentary I've seen, it was real life. It kept itself interesting, and for a videogame movie to keep you on the edge of your seat, that's pretty good.

Best Director: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men

They're kickass directors, plus they used a great location, they really set the time period. Name me a better director in the past 25 years. [Discussion about Terry Gilliam and Martin Scorsese redacted.]

Not nominated but should have won: David Cronenberg, Eastern Promises

I like Eastern Promises because for once these days, I felt like I was getting classic Cronenberg. I wanted to see another Scanners, another Videodrome ... and this is the Cronenberg I know.

Best Actor: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Viggo, Viggo, Viggo. We can agree now after this movie that's he's successfully shed that typecast from Lord of the Rings. All that, what was he, Aragorn? [Randal Graves-style mocking of LOTR trilogy redacted.] And here he's kickass. He's a real, whole character.

Not nominated but should have won: Guy Pearce, Factory Girl

I thought it was the best Warhol I've seen, and I believed him. I felt like I was watching Andy Warhol. He didn't go too over the top. I felt like he understood the character. [Note: I didn't tell him Factory Girl was technically 2006 ... he lives in New Orleans and they get movies very late there sometimes.]

Best Actress: Ellen Page, Juno

This is a sh*t category. Who decided to nominate Cate Blanchett for everything this year? I think she should be grouped with Helen Mirren and Judi Dench, she got nominated for that crap movie [Elizabeth: The Golden Age], I think that's terrible. I really think Ellen Page just because I thought she should have been nominated for Hard Candy last year, I thought she was really good.

Not nominated but should have won: Michelle Pfeiffer, Hairspray

Maybe for Stardust and Hairspray. Hairspray has mediocre dance numbers and songs when Michelle Pfeiffer is not in that movie. She really makes the movie, otherwise it wouldn't be worth watching. I mean, John Travolta? Do you agree? [General disparaging of Travolta in drag redacted.]

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

[I didn't even get to read the nominations before he started chanting, "Javier! Javier!"] The creepiest, coolest character I've seen in years. I love that "Call it, friend-o" thing he says, I've been using it at work.

Not nominated but should have won: Josh Brolin, Grindhouse (Planet Terror)

He was awesome, he had the best part of anyone in that film! [Long conversation about the merits of Michael Biehn and Freddy Rodriguez redacted.]

Best Supporting Actress: Ruby Dee, American Gangster

Oh, God, Cate Blanchett again. You couldn't understand anything she said [in I'm Not There], I couldn't understand if she was trying to make Bob Dylan a Saturday Night Live skit or a biography. American Gangster? Big yawner there. But I'll go for Ruby Dee. Give it to her, why not?

Not nominated but should have won: Michelle Pfeiffer, Stardust

Okay, we have to give Michelle Pfeiffer the best actress for Hairspray and best supporting actress for Stardust. I really liked Stardust. It's the first science-fiction movie I've seen in a long time that I could show to anyone of any age and they'd enjoy.

Best Documentary: Sicko

Every year I cringe when the documentary category comes up. I actually for once enjoyed watching a documentary, and of course it didn't get nominated. I mean, it is so good that I walk around quoting it. And when you quote a documentary, you know they're doing something right. I didn't even see any of those [nominees]. They're all about the environment or Katrina anyway. [I had to explain that except for Sicko, they're actually all about war-related issues.] I usually enjoy hearing what Michael Moore has to say, even if I don't agree with him. I haven't seen Sicko but I wouldn't be surprised if he won.

Not nominated but should have won: The King of Kong

See Best Picture for Stephen's thoughts on this movie.

Best Original Screenplay: Ratatouille

They must release 20 kids movies a week these days, and I mix them all up. I get so confused that I bypass them. But for once, I saw a movie for kids that I liked, that was separated from the pack from every other animal animation film that's come out in the past few years.

Not nominated but should have won: Superbad

I laughed my ass off when I saw Superbad. I laughed my ass off.

Best Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men

Atonement, what is that? I saw the trailer and it looks like a nap waiting to happen. A two-hour, 45 minute nap.

Not nominated but should have won: Stardust

See Best Supporting Actress for Stephen's thoughts on this movie.

Tags: Academy Awards, Cinematical, film, movie, oscar predictions, oscars