By the Numbers: 'Dark Knight' Will Be Nominated for Best Picture Oscar

by Eric D. Snider Jan 9th 2009 // 5:02PM

As a precursor to the Oscars, all the Hollywood guilds and associations have been announcing their own nominations, and you might have noticed a pattern developing:

The Producers Guild of America named these films as candidates for its best picture award: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire.

Then the Directors Guild of America announced its nominees, and they were the men who directed these films: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire.

And the Writers Guild of America had 10 nominees, five each in original screenplay and adapted screenplay, and among those nominees were the people who wrote these films: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire.

The same five films were nominated for each of these guild awards -- a trifecta, to use a word I don't get to use often enough. So now you're wondering, is this trifecta common? And how does it predict the Oscar nominations?

It turns out it is pretty common for a movie to be nominated for all three of these. (It helps that the WGA nominates 10 films, increasing the chances of overlap with the other awards.) The PGA awards are the newest, having begun in 1990, and since that time 43 films (not counting this year's) have hit the trifecta. And of those 43 -- and this is the important part -- only three have then failed to be nominated for a Best Picture Oscar.

So if history is any indication, the nominees for Best Picture at the Academy Awards will be these five films: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Milk, and Slumdog Millionaire. Put on your sad clown mask and take it to the bank.

13 Comments

Tags: curious case of benjamin button, CuriousCaseOfBenjaminButton, frost nixon, FrostNixon, milk, oscars, slumdog millionaire, SlumdogMillionaire, the dark knight, TheDarkKnight

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

1-09-2009 @ 5:59PM

MCW said...

I hope your hypotheses are correct, I really do. If it isn't nominated, I expect a backlash like no other.

I have a question for you and all other Dark Knight fans... if it isn't nominated at the Academy Awards, will you still watch the show, or boycott?

1-09-2009 @ 7:49PM

Bobby A said...

Dark Knight was a good film. But it will not be nominated for Best Picture. It does not deserve to be nominated.

Don't get me wrong - it was very good. But it was an overly ambitious, sometimes convoluted and disjointed effort.

However, Heath Ledger will get a nod for Best Supporting Actor and MAYBE Nolan with get a director nod.

Come back after the nominations to tell me that I was right.

1-09-2009 @ 7:56PM

Eric D. Snider said...

Bobby A, "does not deserve to be nominated" and "will not be nominated" are two different things.

1-09-2009 @ 7:59PM

xenothaulus said...

I never watch the show anyway; I have zero interest in listening to a bunch of blathering between the announcements, and that's not even mentioning the interminable commercials. I'll read who won the morning after, thanks.

1-09-2009 @ 8:08PM

V.M.L. said...

WALL-E deserves a best picture nomination.

1-09-2009 @ 11:19PM

uforeader said...

agreed.

1-10-2009 @ 3:12AM

Movie_Dearest said...

"And of those 43 -- and this is the important part -- only three have then failed to be nominated for a Best Picture Oscar. "

OK, what were the three ?

1-10-2009 @ 12:24PM

Eric D. Snider said...

"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly," "Almost Famous," and "Being John Malkovich."

1-10-2009 @ 7:29PM

Movie_Dearest said...

Thanks!

1-10-2009 @ 7:16AM

AJ Wiley said...

I sincerely hope The Dark Knight is nominated.

But what flummoxes me is all of the Benjamin Button love. Don't get me wrong, I thought it was a very good movie, but it certainly fell short of its aspirations, and the critics haven't been THAT overwhelmingly positive about it. Why is it suddenly getting awards fever?

1-11-2009 @ 4:15PM

AvilloPillow21 said...

I saw Frost/Nixon last night and though it was a good movie but I didn't think it was a GREAT movie. A Best Picture Nod would bother me.

Back to the topic, I'm all for The Dark Knight being nominated.

1-12-2009 @ 10:34AM

Kevin said...

Okay Bobby A., what should be nominated in its place? Personally (and I've said it on this blog before) I think that if any of these movies don't get nominated for an Oscar that it should be Benjamin Button thats left out. It just isn't a great film. It has great aspirations, and an interesting idea, but it doesn't say anything for the 3 hour running time. The pace is slow and plodding, which is fine if you have a message or point, but this movie just takes it time going nowhere. I would have absolutely no problem with Milk, F/N, and certainly Slumdog, and I wouldn't be horribly upset if TDK wasn't nominated, but only if its replaced by a movie thats truly great. Right now I would put in the category with the other three movies I listed and then hope that CCBB is replaced by a more worthy film.

2-20-2009 @ 1:37PM

Pedro Sttau said...

I am sorry but if the Dark Knight isn't a film worthy of an Oscar nomination I don't know what is.

Unbelievable.