'Avatar' Could Earn Back Its Budget From China Alone
Filed under: Action, Sci-Fi & Fantasy, Distribution, 20th Century Fox
I don't know how many moons orbit Cameron's fantasy planet Pandora, but I'm just going to assume they're currently all heading for alignment. Screen Daily tells us that Avatar's two-months away release in China has caused no less than four of its own would-be blockbusters to hide from the giant shadow the blue cat-people will inevitably cast when they debut there January 1st. Zhang Yimou's remake of the Coen Brother's 1984 directorial debut Blood Simple has now decided to bow closer towards the beginning of December. Same goes for the road movie Wu Ren Qu, The Pang brother's fantasy/action sequel The Storm Warriors, and the sci-fi western Treasure Hunter (starring Jay Chou, who America will soon know as Kato in The Green Hornet).
Now I understand that few people who read Cinematical are going to be affected by the release date shift of those four films, but what makes this news worth paying attention to is the fact that these changes slot Avatar into a position in which it could conceivably earn its budget back from Chinese cinemas alone. The biggest time of the year for the Chinese box office is the three month window that covers Christmas, New Year, and the Chinese Lunar New Year and now that these four domestic films have made way for an international usurper, it means Avatar will be taking over a whopping 80% of China's screens during its most crucial box office season.
Oddly enough, Fox has still not finalized Avatar's screening permit in China, but no one is expecting it'll get denied. A general manager for China's New Film Association tells SD, "It is the first time in five years that such a heavyweight Hollywood film released in the year-end season. Its box office impact will be huge." Considering every other film during its run will be vying for the 20% of negative space Avatar won't be occupying in all of its 2D, 3D, and IMAX formats, I'd say huge is a conservative estimate.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
11-05-2009 @ 2:12PM
Kevin said...
Why is this newsworthy? You are announcing that a blockbuster movie is likely to be a blockbuster? What is the average take of a hollywood release in china? What percentage of hollywood profits come from chinese theaters? Is it typical/atypical for a hollywood movie to earn substantial profits in china? What is the highest grossing movie in chinese history? Is 300 million dollars in earnings expected in china, and (besides the fact that it will be playing on 80% of the screens) why? I didn't get anything from this article that I couldn't have guessed 6 months ago.
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11-05-2009 @ 2:17PM
LordPaul said...
Wow! I bet you wish you had a news site.
11-05-2009 @ 2:20PM
Kevin said...
Nope, just hoping Peter can fill in the gaps. With the way the article is now cinematical might as well have put out an article entitled "Tickets Must be Paid for To Attend Avatar Showings in December". Its obvious. Why not devote a whole article to the amount of screens every movie will be shown on? Give me a reason why this is a topic worth mentioning.
11-05-2009 @ 3:17PM
Booby Jones said...
It could make a billion dollars in China, if it's not a massive hit here then everyone will say the movie is a failure, just like every other movie.
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11-05-2009 @ 2:24PM
Peter Hall said...
Really? You require all of those ancillary facts for a story to be newsworthy in your eyes? The news lies in the fact that this release window in China regularly constitutes a $300 million pool of business (as mentioned in the article referenced twice) without the draw of an international blockbuster (again, a move like this hasn't been made in years).
Considering the industry is keeping a microscope on the success of Fox's massive gamble on James Cameron's imagination, if his film can earn its budget back from a single foreign country, then it'll be absurdly profitable when all of the markets are taken into account.
It's also remarkably rare that a single movie occupy 80% of the available screens in a nation with a population of nearly 1.7 billion people. It's not my fault if you find none of that interesting.
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11-05-2009 @ 2:33PM
Kevin said...
Where is the reference that movies in that 3 month span can expect to make 300 million? You say it will occupy 80% of the screens, but give no indication of whether this should be expected to make that much cash. Russia and India are hugely populated areas, but they don't frequenlty contribute over 100 million dollars in earnings to hollywood features. Why should I expect China to do so? Did the number one movie in china's market last year make 300 million? yes? Than its reasonable to expect avatar to make more. no? Than why will Avatar? 5 years ago what sort of profits did the hollywood blockbuster (whatever it was) make? You have a good starting point for your conclusion, but I'm interested in why you actually draw it. Not being critical, just curious. Tell me why Avatar will actually make 300 million in China. number of screens is all you cite, and that means nothing.
11-05-2009 @ 2:51PM
Peter Hall said...
From the twice-linked Screen Daily article "The three month season generates between $200m to $300m in box office gross." That's not per movie, per theater, or per screen, which is why your request for such statistics is pointless. That's a cumulative average for the entire box office. Assuming it performs only as good as the previous, non-landmark films that set that $300m high mark, at 80% of the screens that number comes to $240m.
Considering the title of this article is "Could Earn", I think it's a valid assumption that it make up that remaining $60m difference in a number of ways. Personally, I think it'll flat out be more popular than the films that set that bench mark, thus making more money on it's own, but this will also be one of the first high-draw, international films to be released across the country in not only 3D, but IMAX and IMAX 3D; all three being platforms that charge an extra premium for tickets.
11-05-2009 @ 2:58PM
Kevin said...
Gotcha; you were assuming that interested parties in the facts of this issue would use your article as a launching pad. I'll be sure to do my own research before asking you to provide facts in the future. Thanks.
11-05-2009 @ 2:34PM
cablebfg said...
Hold on, are you saying that this thing will actually occupy 80% of screens across EVERY theater in China? Effectively meaning that a 10 screen theater will have only two slots open for different films?
This is madness! No, THIS.... IS.... CHINA!!!
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11-05-2009 @ 2:48PM
John Ramistella said...
I actually found this news quite interesting. For months I've been reading about Avatar, watching the trailers and seeing stills and wondering if this movie would even be profitable, given its budget and the possibility of hype overkill. To know that 80% of China's theaters will be showing Avatar, well, that's slightly notable.
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11-05-2009 @ 3:12PM
Michael said...
Wow, you call this Journalism? Or are you aware that you do nothing but spread silly internet rumors?
Nowhere in the screen daily article is it suggested that Avatar could earn back its budget from china alone, which to anybody with any common sense is obviously impossible.
Even if the season during which Avatar is released is good for 300million dollars, that doesn't mean Avatar will take 80% of that sum. And even if it did, lets say 250, that would still be a net gross of about 125 million so still way short of the 300 million budget Avatar carries. So 'posting an article called "Avatar' Could Earn Back Its Budget From China Alone" is complete nonsense. Made up articles like this are one of the reasons the Internet is completly unreliable....
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11-05-2009 @ 3:23PM
Michael said...
Just to show you the stupidity of this article: A quick google search (ressearch, in case you know what that is) brought up another screen daily article including the following paragraph:
"In June, Warner Bros’ Terminator Salvation took around $15.52m (RMB106m) while Transformers 2 had grossed around $44m (RMB300m) as of Wednesday, July 8, and was expected to break Titanic’s RMB360m record to become the highest-grossing film in China of all time."
So, Titanic is the most succesful film ever in china and has grossed around $60 million....
Do you still need somebody to explain to you why its absolutly impossible that Avatar will make its budget back from china alone?
Take some journalism classes.....
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11-05-2009 @ 3:28PM
Peter Hall said...
In doing your research you should probably take note of the fact that all of the film's you mentioned were released outside of the crucial three-month window that this article is talking about.
None of the three films you mentioned were released during the height of the Chinese box office, none were released competition-free, and none were released on 80% of the country's screens during said height of the box office season.
If anything, your point that Titanic is the highest grossing movie ever released in China - a film that was released during the off-season month of April over a decade ago - only further proves that the country has a track record of supporting James Cameron.
My "could earn" still stands.
11-05-2009 @ 3:41PM
Booby Jones said...
Did some research...
From what I can find, the highest grossing movie in Chinese history is Revenge Of The Fallen, with around 60 or so million.
The budget for Avatar is said to be around 300 million.
Now in order for Avatar to make back all of it's budget in China, it would have to make over FIVE times what the current all time box office champion is in the country. Even if it is on 80% of screens, it would still have to make FIVE times 60 million on from what I can find to be only about 3000 or so screens. Plus, it's a communist country, so people don't have that much money to spend. Can any movie in THIS country make 300 million on about 2400 screens?
So for all the people who have issues with this posting, I would be more upset with the fact that no one bothered to look into how much money movies in China actually make.
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11-05-2009 @ 3:52PM
Michael said...
No, you're "could earn" is completly foolish! I dont know if you are a demented fanboy who thinks Avatar is the second coming, but otherwise there is no explanation for somebody to believe that Avatar could gross $600 million in a country where the previous most succesfull film grossed $60 million.
Its more likely that Obama ends poverty, destroys all nuclear weapons and brings peace to the middle east than that Avatar makes its budget back from china alone.
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11-05-2009 @ 4:16PM
cablebfg said...
explain to me why you require Avatar to make $600 million instead of $300 million? I understand that the actual production cost does not mean that is all they spent on getting the film to theaters and advertising (which is likely to balloon in the next few weeks), but you require DOUBLE?
11-06-2009 @ 3:48AM
Michael said...
As a rule of thumb only about half of the gross a film makes goes back to the producers, the rest stays with distributors and the theater owners.
So if one arguse that Avatar could earn back its budget in china and the budget being around 300 million, the gross would have to be around 600 million. Which is even more absurd than just to match the budget of 300 million.
11-06-2009 @ 12:32PM
cablebfg said...
Clearly he meant $300 million though, as that is what is actually the budget. You got way too technical in your attempt to knock his argument that it would make back it's budget in China alone.
If it makes over $300 million, his prediction was correct, PERIOD. Cuz that is all he ever claimed it would make.
11-06-2009 @ 1:54PM
Michael said...
Obviously thats what he meant and it just shows that he has no idea about box office, rentals, grosses etc.
But it doesn't matter either way, as Avatar also wont come near 300 million....
11-05-2009 @ 3:52PM
Stan Winsome said...
I suspect this time next year Avatar will be talked about as the movie the knocked James Cameron, 3D filmmaking, big budget runaway productions and CG animation down several notches. Looks like an also-ran of the highest order...
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