Monday Night Poll: How Much Will 'Avatar' Make Opening Weekend?
Filed under: Action, Animation, Drama, Sci-Fi & Fantasy, Box Office, 20th Century Fox, Movie Marketing, Oscar Watch
Avatar isn't being released until December 18th, but if you're already sick of hearing about it, you better plug up your ears. The hype machine for James Cameron's magnum opus has been hard at work leaking details, images, snippets, and trailers since way before this year's San Diego Comic-Con or the extensive profile in October's New Yorker. Cameron, who has never been one to bite his tongue, told Playboy, "We know from the exit polling that the response [to Avatar] was 95 percent ecstatic. Most of the five percent negative response is from the fanatic fans who imagined the movie in their minds but now have to deal with my movie." Also, that when it comes to giving birth to a movie, he's crowning. Yum!
Bon mots from Cameron aside, Avatar could be a real game-changer as far as 3D films go – and hell, it's a refreshing change of pace from the sequels, prequels, remakes, and re-imaginings we're forced to sit through. (Plus... giant blue cat people!!!). It's definitely in the running for numerous Oscars. In fact, Oscar experts at In Contention currently have the film for consideration in eight categories, including Best Picture and Best Director.
Not only that, Variety reported that James Cameron, stars Sam Worthington and Zoe Saldana, and producer Jon Landau will be doing a live webcast on December 3rd that will allow fans the chance to ask questions of the crew and sneak peeks at previously unseen footage from the film. The webcast will be broadcast on MTV two days before Avatar hits screens.
So, are you a betting man or woman? How much do you think the Avatar exposure will pay off opening weekend? Will Na'ivish become the new Elvish? Let's start with under $20 million. Going once, going twice... Vote below!
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
11-30-2009 @ 9:41PM
uforeader said...
why isn't there a 80-100 million option? 'cause that's my choice.
Reply
11-30-2009 @ 9:53PM
Nathan said...
I still don't get why there's any hype to the movie. It doesn't look very good, and from what I can tell people only want to see it because they're being told they have to. Can anyone tell me a different reason other than brainwash?
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11-30-2009 @ 10:20PM
cablebfg said...
Some people think it looks good. Reason enough for me to see a movie.
Say whatever you want about the "Dances with Smurfs" plot, it looks great to me. Besides, since when does a rehashed story line mean a movie is going to be uninteresting?
11-30-2009 @ 10:21PM
Wayne said...
Unless it scores better than 85% on Rotten Tomatoes I won't be seeing it in theaters. It looks boring and lame, not inventive and revolutionary.
11-30-2009 @ 10:55PM
Reuben said...
I may see it because of how fantastic it is supposed to look. the story really isn't doing anything for me, and I bet that any of us could write the ending right here and now.
We'll see.
12-20-2009 @ 12:42PM
rick said...
this is the best movie i have ever seen great story line fresh attaction packed and romance, i going see it again i have never dream about a movie i have seen before, but i did all night thats how great is was.
11-30-2009 @ 10:19PM
Rich said...
It will have a HUGE first weekend, $80-100M, then tank the following weeks.
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11-30-2009 @ 10:28PM
Stan Winsome said...
I've no doubt it will open huge but I'm expecting it will drop like a stone in the second week as all the early adopter hard core sci-fi nerds and bad word of mouth rapidly deflates interest. Remember, they have to make 500+ million to not be considered a bomb. Does this movie really look as good as The Dark Knight or as widely demographically appealing as big 2009 hits like Transformers 2 or Harry Potter or Up? It's also not tracking nearly as well as Star Trek and that was a very modest overseas success that topped out at $257M in the US.
I believe Avatar is on track to be the box office disaster for James Cameron that everyone thought Titanic would be. That movie had two attractive leads, an old-fashioned love story and a compelling, real-life historical drama going for it. Not to mention state of the art VFX. Avatar has none of that going for it and is also saddled with a cliche Dances With Wolves meets Fergully in space story we can all see coming a mile away. It also has cheesy videogame-esque, Star Wars prequel-like wall to wall effects, 3D or not. Opening BO may be well over 150M but let's see how they fare after a week out in the open…
Reply
12-01-2009 @ 11:32PM
ledbetter said...
So does that mean you'll be there on opening day?
12-01-2009 @ 12:38AM
Stan Winsome said...
Sure- cu there homie!
11-30-2009 @ 10:42PM
lgbos said...
Big to start on opening weekend and then dropping off.
I only hope that this new 3D "technology" is a VAST improvement over the latest which has you wearing dimmed glasses which wash out the colors of the movie. At least you know that the BluRay will look insanely vibrant.
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11-30-2009 @ 10:52PM
Kevin said...
I agree with you about the 3-D. Whenever I'm done watching a movie with the newer glasses I feel like I've missed half of the film, and I lose that regular connection with a movie I get from a 2-D theater experience. It doesn't add anything to the experience for me, although I can understand why others might like it.
As for Avatar itself, whats with all the hate? I'm not psyched about the movie, and as of now I have no plans to see it until its been out long enough to avoid the crowds, but were the commentors on this site invited to some top secret screening of the film that nobody else knows about? If not then how are they so sure its gonna be a crapfest with a rehashed, boring plot? I have never understood hating something you haven't seen or experienced.
12-20-2009 @ 6:42AM
rickeyd said...
best 3d movie ever i see a few and why are these people leaving comments on something the have not seen wtf
11-30-2009 @ 10:48PM
RTMS said...
Everytime I see this I think of a extended pretty video game cut scene. I just can't get excited about this movie. It looks silly, the story is redundant and cliched. I agree with Nathan people will go because of the hype and be disappointed. I expect it to do Watchmen type numbers, basically do well the first weekend and then have bad word of mouth sink it the following weekend. Not to mention Sherlock Holmes will keep it from making as much as it could.
Reply
11-30-2009 @ 11:48PM
Mike said...
I don't know how many of you saw the Avatar preview on IMAX but i was actually really impressed with how it looked and the 3D aspect of it. The glasses may have dimmed the picture a bit but it's vibrant enough that it didn't matter and the 3D more than made up for it.
Reply
12-10-2009 @ 7:24PM
Bike LA said...
Thats on "Imax".
It doesn't translate to the local multiplex where the box-office money needs to be made.
On a positive note reviewers who saw a screening in London last night agree that it doesnt suck.
However an embargo on publishing actual reviews until after the opening weekend always makes me very skeptical about seeing a film, its a definate indication that the film does not stand out.
12-10-2009 @ 10:24PM
Mike said...
Avatar has a 100% rating on Rotten Tomatoes now, granted it's only 6 reviews but they seem pretty excited about it.
12-01-2009 @ 1:28AM
Dana said...
I saw the IMAX preview and the colors were brilliant. I don't know what the dimming thing is about.
Having seen that preview in IMAX, and knowing the effects it had on me and the others who saw it, I can see the word of mouth being great on this, and it will be far from a front-loaded hit. It won't break any records opening weekend, but it'll sustain because of people who can't get the images they saw out of their brain and drag their family and friends back to the theater.
I'm incredibly confident in this.
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12-01-2009 @ 2:03AM
Andy said...
For some reason I already feel sorry for Avatar. I don't even know why.
I think everyone above hit it on the head...may come out big, but it's going to drop like a stone. I'm interested only because of Cameron and the tech involved...the trailer doesn't do anything for me it at all.
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12-01-2009 @ 11:42AM
Kevin said...
Your argument doesn't make sense. If the trailer is boring enough that people won't be excited to see it then why will it open huge? And how do you know that it will have a significant drop off without having seen it yourself or read the opinions of others who have seen it? At this point the ONLY thing anyone can predict is the opening weekend because that will be driven by the marketing and hype. So if the M and H are being done so poorly than you can argue the opening weekend will be a disappointment, but until the reviews come in or you've seen it yourself than nobody can say how big its drop off will be. The movie may turn out to be incredible and have great staying power, or it may sink like a stone, but as of now its impossible to say.