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Box Office: Enemies On Ice

Filed under: Box Office Predictions

Giant robots kicked some shiny metal butt last weekend as the new Transformers movie earned the second highest gross of any film in its first five days (The Dark Knight still has the lead). In the wake of all this cybernetic mayhem, My Sister's Keeper did respectably well enough to take fifth on its opening weekend. Here's the top five:

1. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen: $108.9 million ($200 million since Wednesday)
2. The Proposal: $18.6 million
3. The Hangover: $17 million
4. Up: $13 million
5. My Sister's Keeper: $12.4 million


Two new releases this week, each with a historical flair.

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
What's It All About:
This is the third installment in the popular animated series. This time around our gang of prehistoric pals discover an underground world in which dinosaurs still exist.
Why It Might Do Well:
2006's Ice Age: The Meltdown had a $68 million dollar opening weekend.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
Rottentomatoes.com is giving it a disappointing 37%.
Number of Theaters:
3,993
Prediction:
$66 million

Public Enemies
What's It All About:
Michael Mann directs this film about depression-era bank robber John Dillinger.
Why It Might Do Well:
Johnny Depp, Christian Bale and Academy Award winner Marion Cotillard make for a compelling cast, and based on the trailer they pull off the period setting quite believably.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
Only 57% at Rottentomatoes.com.
Number of Theaters:
3,200
Prediction:
$28 million

Box Office: Am I My Transformer's Keeper?

Filed under: Action, Drama, Sci-Fi & Fantasy, Box Office, Comic/Superhero/Geek, Box Office Predictions, Summer Movies

I have to imagine Sandra Bullock is in a pretty good mood since The Proposal gave her the strongest opening weekend of her career. Year One got off to a so-so start, with holdovers The Hangover and Up forcing the prehistoric comedy into fourth place. Here's the top five:

1. The Proposal: $33.6 million
2. The Hangover: $26.7 million
3. Up: $23.4 million
4. Year One: $19.6 million
5. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3: $12 million

Two wildly different movie coming out this week:

My Sister's Keeper
What's It All About:
When a young girl (Abigail Breslin) learns she was conceived to create a compatible bone marrow donor for her ailing sister she sues her parents for emancipation.
Why It Might Do Well:
This is a smart bit of counter programming since the audience for this movie will probably not intersect with the Transformers crowd. Right now there's a 100% rating at Rottentomatoes.com, though only five reviews are in.
Why It Might Not Do Well: The plot seems pretty heavy for a Summer release.
Number of Theaters: 2,600
Prediction: $9 million

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (Opens Wednesday)
What's It All About:
Michael Bay directs this big budget special effects sequel about giant alien robots using Earth as their battlefield. Much of the original cast returns including Shia LaBeouf and Megan Fox.
Why It Might Do Well: In addition to having all the effects, action and explosions a Summer blockbuster requires, the first film in the franchise had a $70 million opening weekend and went on to gross $319 million domestically.
Why It Might Not Do Well: A lowly 22% at Rottentomatoes.com.
Number of Theaters: 4,000
Prediction: $98 million


Box Office: One Year, One Proposal

Filed under: Comedy, Box Office Predictions

The Hangover held on to the top spot once again last week, edging out newcomers The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 and Eddie Murphy's Imagine That (which placed sixth). Star Trek finally fell out of the top five landing in seventh place for its sixth week. Here's the top five:

1. The Hangover: $32.7 million
2. Up: $30.8 million
3. The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3: $23.4 million
4. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian: $9.6 million
5. Land of the Lost: $9 million


Two new comedies out this week:

The Proposal
What's It All About:
Romantic comedy about a high power executive (Sandra Bullock) who faces deportation back to Canada. In order to stay in the States she plans to marry her assistant (Ryan Reynolds) who she has treated like dirt for years.
Why It Might Do Well: The two leads are appealing as is the supporting cast which includes Mary Steenburgen, Craig T. Nelson, and Betty White.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
The basic plot has been done to death in film and episodic TV and there's no shortage of comedies this week.
Number of Theaters:
2,950
Prediction:
$28 million

Year One
What's It All About:
A stone age comedy directed by Harold Ramis and starring Jack Black and Michael Cera as two guys who embark upon adventures after being booted out of their village.
Why It Might Do Well:
This kind of has a Life of Brian feel without the religious overtones.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Jack Black can be a real love him or hate him kind of guy.
Number of Theaters:
2,900
Prediction:
$24 million

Box Office: Taking This and Imagining That

Filed under: Action, Comedy, Box Office Predictions

Nausea, cotton mouth, and a splitting headache took everyone by surprise last weekend as The Hangover took the number one spot, just barely outdoing Up in its second week. Land of the Lost had a lackluster opening weekend, scoring a distant third place. My Life in Ruins took ninth place with a $3.2 million take. Here's the top five:

1. The Hangover: $44.9 million
2. Up: $44.1 million
3. Land of the Lost: $18.8 million
4. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian: $14.6 million
5. Star Trek: $8.3 million

Two new flicks this week:

Imagine That
What's It All About:
A comedy starring Eddie Murphy as a financial executive who salvages his career with advice from his daughter's imaginary friends.
Why It Might Do Well:
I just can't imagine that.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
It's no secret that, unless he's voicing an irritating yet amusing donkey, Murphy is not the box office draw he once was. His last feature Meet Dave opened with a mere $5.2 million. It doesn't help that the plot about a father who will no doubt discover the value of family over work has become a kids' movie cliche.
Number of Theaters: 2,800
Prediction:
$9 million

The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3
What's It All About:
Denzel Washington plays a New York City subway dispatcher and John Travolta plays the leader of a ruthless group of criminals who are holding a subway car full of passengers for a hefty ransom.
Why It Might Do Well:
The two leads are the big draw here.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
Based on twelve reviews Rottentomatoes.com is giving this only 42% and for the most part remakes leave a bad taste in my mouth.
Number of Theaters:
3,000
Prediction:
$26 million

Box Office: Lost, Hungover and Ruined

Filed under: Action, Comedy, Sci-Fi & Fantasy, Box Office, Box Office Predictions

This past weekend marked Pixar and Disney's tenth consecutive number one opener as Up took the box office by storm. Sam Raimi's new scare-fest Drag Me To Hell did okay taking third, but was still nudged down by last week's leader Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian. Here's the top five:

1. Up $68.1 million
2. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian: $24.4 million
3. Terminator Salvation: $16.4 million
4. Drag Me to Hell: $15.8 million
5. Star Trek: $12.6 million

All three of this week's new releases are going for laughs but in very different ways.

The Hangover
What's It All About:
Four friends head to Vegas for a bachelor party blowout, but the next morning the groom is missing, there's a tiger in their hotel bathroom and someone has left a baby with them. Yeah, if I had a nickel for every time...
Why It Might Do Well: Based on the trailer, this is the sort of drunken escapade everyone wishes they could brag about. At the moment Rottentomatoes.com is giving the flick a pretty sweet 100% fresh rating.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
There's a lack of star power and some serious competition.
Number of Theaters:
3,200
Prediction:
$26 million

Land of the Lost
What's It All About:
In this reimagining of the classic Saturday morning TV show, Will Ferrell plays a scientist who finds himself transported to a world full of dinosaurs and lizard people.
Why It Might Do Well:
Between the nostalgia factor and Ferrell's box office appeal, there will be some money made here.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
Will Matt Lauer's fans keep away after the dissing he takes in the trailer?
Number of Theaters: 3,300
Prediction: $35 million

Box Office: Drag Me Up

Filed under: Animation, Comedy, Horror, Box Office, Box Office Predictions

The living museum displays of Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian kicked Terminator: Salvation's cybernetic butt last weekend. Star Trek and Angels & Demons held on strong, beating out last week's other newbie Dance Flick. Here's the top five:

1. Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian: $70 million
2. Terminator: Salvation: $51.9 million
3. Star Trek: $29.3 million
4. Angels & Demons: $27.4 million
5. Dance Flick: $12.6 million

This week's two new releases show what counter programming is all about. One film is about ascending into the heavens while the other goes straight to hell.

Up
What's It All About:
Animated comedy about an elderly balloon salesman who finally embarks on the adventure he has always dreamed of by attaching thousands of balloons to his house and flying away.
Why It Might Do Well:
This is the latest from Disney/Pixar and their track record speaks for itself. Plus the trailers have been delightful and Rottentomatoes.com gives it 100%.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Oh, don't be like that.
Number of Theaters: 3,700
Prediction: $68 million

Box Office: A Night of Dancing and Terminating

Filed under: Action, Comedy, Sci-Fi & Fantasy, Box Office Predictions

Last week's only new release Angels & Demons took top honors, but without the controversy enjoyed by The Da Vinci Code the numbers weren't nearly as stellar. Star Trek held out well in its second week, making only $3 million less than the number one flick. Here's the top five:

1. Angels & Demons: $46.2 million
2. Star Trek: $43 million
3. X-Men Origins: Wolverine: $14.7 million
4. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past: $6.6 million
5. Obsessed: $4.5 million


Heading into the Memorial Day weekend we've got two comedies and one kick ass looking science fiction actioner.


Terminator: Salvation (Opening on Thursday)
What's It All About:
This fourth film in the Terminator series takes place in the year 2018 and John Connor (Christian Bale) is leading the assault against the machines that want to exterminate humanity.
Why It Might Do Well: Bale's presence gives the series a strength it hasn't had since the departure of Linda Hamilton.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
It's scoring a very disappointing 32% at Rottentomatoes.com.
Number of Theaters: 3,500
Prediction:
$78 million


Night of the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian
What's It All About:
Ben Stiller returns as the night watchman who keeps running into living museum exhibits. This time he's sneaking into The Smithsonian to rescue two living museum pieces that have been shipped there accidentally.
Why It Might Do Well:
The first film made $250 million.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
44% at Rottentomatoes.com doesn't impress.
Number of Theaters:
4,000
Prediction:
$60 million

Box Office: Angels and Demons Arrives

Filed under: Drama, Box Office Predictions

JJ Abrams' Star Trek has managed to revive a classic franchise and took in some serious bucks for its opening weekend. While I didn't expect much from Next Day Air I figured it could at least outdo 17 Again in its fourth week. Nope. Next Day Air finished sixth with $4.1 million. Here's the top five:

1. Star Trek: $75.2 million ($79.2 million total)
2. X-Men Origins: Wolverine: $26.4 million
3. Ghosts of Girlfri
ends Past: $10.3 million
4. Obsessed: $6.6 million
5. 17 Again: $4.3 million

Only one new release this week but it's got some clout.

Angels and Demons
What's It All About:
Ron Howard directs and Tom Hanks returns to the role he played in The Da Vinci Code, playing renowned symbologist Robert Langdon who becomes involved with an international conspiracy involving the Catholic church.
Why It Might Do Well: 2006's The Da Vinci Code had a $77 million opening weekend. With Hanks and Howard both returning, it's not too big a stretch to expect similar numbers.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Rottentomatoes.com is giving this an underwhelming 56%.
Number of Theaters: 3,400
Prediction:
$60 million

Poll: How Much Will 'Star Trek' Make This Weekend?

Filed under: Sci-Fi & Fantasy, New Releases, Paramount, Remakes and Sequels, Box Office Predictions, Polls

'Star Trek' (Paramount Pictures)Will young people in space outperform a Canadian dude with claws? No one will know until J.J. Abrams' Star Trek begins screening to the general public tonight, but early reviews continue to be overwhelmingly positive and online advance ticket sales have been brisk, with Fandango claiming in a press release that the film is responsible for 91% of their daily ticket sales. Still, is it only geeks and cult fans who are excited about Star Trek this weekend?

"Let's be realistic: This is not a sure thing," says Logan Hill at Vulture, pointing to the lack of "bankable stars" and his opinion that "it's a reboot of a franchise that's become little more than a punch line to anyone over the age of 25, and simply isn't a firsthand reference for anyone younger." Also, heavy-duty advance online ticket sales were also reported for the R-rated Watchmen, which "underperformed estimates" by drawing (only) $55 million.

Of course, Star Trek is rated PG-13, and is shorter than Watchmen's 163-minute running time. Our own Matt Bradshaw predicted Star Trek would make $82 million this weekend, a few million less than Wolverine's gross last weekend. Other predictions so far have been more modest, ranging from $40 million (Box Office Prophets) to $65 million (Steve Mason at Big Hollywood) to $74 million (Box Office Guru). Variety, however, thinks it can top $100 million.

What do you think? Will Star Trek under perform, drawing only from its fan base? Or will it be an across-the-board, popular smash this weekend? Take our poll and let us know: Which estimate is most likely to be right?

How Much Will 'Star Trek' Make This Weekend?

Box Office: Beam Us Up, Scotty

Filed under: Action, Comedy, Sci-Fi & Fantasy, Box Office Predictions

Marking Fox's best non-holiday opening weekend ever, X-Men Origins: Wolverine hacked and slashed its way to the number one position. The romantic comedy Ghosts of Girlfriends Past made a reasonable if unremarkable amount of cash, landing it in second place and the animated science fiction epic Battle For Terra landed way back in twelfth place, just barely cracking the $1 million mark. Here's the top five:

1. X-Men Origins: Wolverine: $85 million
2. Ghosts of Girlfriends Past: $15.4 million
3. Obsessed: $12 million
4. 17 Again: $6.3 million
5. Monsters Vs. Aliens: $5.8 million

Two new releases this week, at least one of which will boldly go where no one has gone before.

Star Trek
What's It All About:
The long-running science fiction franchise gets a reboot, recasting the characters of the original TV series and exploring the early adventures of Captain James T. Kirk and the crew of the starship Enterprise.
Why It Might Do Well:
The trailers have been pretty amazing and the plan to market this film as Star Trek for people who aren't Star Trek fans seems to be working. I'm not sure I've ever seen this happen before, but Rottentomatoes.com is giving Trek a 100% fresh rating.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Only a massive dilithium crystal failure could keep this out of the number one spot.
Number of Theaters: 3,500
Prediction:
$82 million
 

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