I knew I was being a little conservative on my $62 million prediction for Iron Man, but HOLY JEEZ! The comic book adaptation had the tenth highest opening weekend in history, and the second biggest for a non-sequel. In addition to the $98.6 million Marvel's armored avenger made domestically, he also pulled in $96.8 million overseas, putting the $140 million budgeted film comfortably into the black. Last week's other newbie Made of Honor took second with a comparatively reserved but still respectable $14.7 million. Here's the rundown:

1. Iron Man: $98.6 million
2. Made of Honor: $14.7 million
3. Baby Mama: $10 million
4. Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay: $6.1 million
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall: $6 million

Again, just two new ones this week:

Speed Racer
What's It All About: Andy and Larry Wachowski, the team behind the Matrix trilogy, adapt the classic 60's anime Speed Racer using a visual style reminiscent of Japanese animation melded with a modern video game aesthetic.
Why It Might Do Well: The trailer was amazing, and Cinematical's own James Rocchi describes the film as "a blast of pure pop family fun" in his review, which you can read right here.
Why It Might Not Do Well: The 40% rating on Rottentomatoes.com suggests this one may have trouble knocking Iron Man out of first place.
Number of Theaters: 3,600
Prediction: $43 million

After presenting The Spirit at last month's New York Comic-Con, Lionsgate feels good enough about Frank Miller's solo directorial debut to move it from its January 16th dead zone of a release date to Christmas Day, 2008. So instead of going up against Mall Cop, starring Kevin James as a wacky security guard, and the Notorious B.I.G. biopic, The Spirit will face off against Adam Sandler's Bedtime Stories, the supposedly ultra-heartwarming Marley & Me, The Tale of Despereaux, and the aftershocks of Twilight and The Day the Earth Stood Still.

"Adult" Christmas counterprogramming has not traditionally fared too well. Last year's Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem actually did okay, but remember Black Christmas? No? What about Darkness? The move is indeed a vote of confidence, but it might up throwing the film to the wolves. The key is to position it as a prestige picture rather than a throwaway. There's been enough fanfare around the promotional materials released thus far to make that look like a possibility. If Lionsgate can put it on people's radar in advance as a Christmas Movie to See, rather than have it randomly show up to compete against the holiday heavy-hitters, it could work.

Take a look at the trailer for The Spirit here.

Big budget Iron Man racking up big box office? Not a shock. The latest from Harmony Korine (Gummo, Julian Donkey-Boy) topping the indie box office chart? That's a surprise. Mister Lonely (IFC Films) only opened at one theater in Manhattan, but it took in $19,100 for the highest per-screen average among indies this weekend, according to estimates compiled by Box Office Mojo. Diego Luna plays a Michael Jackson impersonator; Samantha Morton, Denis Levant and filmmaker Werner Herzog also star. Our own Jeffrey M. Anderson wrote: "Though Mister Lonely seems sweeter and more mainstream than Korine's other films, it still has that sense of randomness, of pathetic luck and habit and wisdom all combining to make up a life, or a collision of lives."

David Mamet's Redbelt (Sony Classics) pulled in $11,433 per screen at six locations. Chiwitel Ejiofor stars as the honorable owner of a Jiu-jitsu studio who is drawn into the world of "pay-per-view mixed martial arts," as Cinematical's James Rocchi described it. He did not feel the film matched the writer/director's best work; "still, even minor Mamet can be a source of major satisfaction, especially with an actor as compelling as Ejiofor in the lead."

Son of Rambow (Paramount Vantage) averaged $10,500 each at five theaters. Garth Jennings' delightful kids' adventure follows two boys as they create their own action movie epic featuring John Rambo. James Rocchi called it "a brilliant celebration of the exuberance and thrill of bad storytelling, of making art, of having dreams."

In these supposedly progressive times, gender equality is one of those touchy issues relegated to the last paragraph of a trend piece nobody reads. When Katherine Heigl suggested to Vanity Fair that Judd Apatow's movies were sexist, the assertion came across like an after-the-fact shrug of acceptance. Ever the galvanizing provocateur, New York Times critic Manohla Dargis confronts the issue head-on with a thorough analysis of the gender bias in this year's summer blockbusters.

With "Iron Man, Batman, Big Angry Green Man" and other massive expressions of virility invading the box office, female roles appear to be relegated to the back of the multiplex. Dargis touches on the rumors that Warner Bros head Jeff Robinov believes no woman has been able to sell a movie since Julia Roberts (a point that Natalie Portman might contest, but not Paris Hilton) before sizing up numerous upcoming studio releases, with particular attention paid to Anna Faris, "who could be the next Judy Holliday but without the right material will, alas, probably end up the next Brittany Murphy." It's the kind of pronouncement that hits you in gut.

Well, Grand Theft Auto or no Grand Theft Auto, Iron Man wins at life, raking in somewhere from $32 to 35 million on Friday, depending on whom you believe. That puts it on track for an opening weekend between $90 million and $100 million, ensuring a string of sequels and a big champagne bash over at Paramount. But it may also mean a great deal for the future of one Robert Downey, Jr., who tackled the title role with spectacular wit and charm. If an über-lucrative mainstream career is what he wants, it's probably now his for the taking. His role as a blackface-donning thespian in Tropic Thunder later this summer should help even more.

All this is by way of introduction to the fantastic long-player on Downey that is this month's GQ cover story. It covers the bases of the actor's famous checkered past -- the arrests, the tumultuous rehab stints, Matt Palmieri's violent intervention -- but also his slow-and-steady return, and his current precarious, drug-free perch at the top. Matthew Klam spent the day with the actor, hanging out at Downey's Brentwood Mansion, going indoor skydiving, and having a kung fu training session during which Downey punched him in the face. He lets loose with all sorts of candid details about the man's life and recovery (endless health shakes and vitamin pills, a butler-slash-best-friend), but it's more than just a piece of celebrity gossip -- it's a genuinely interesting look at a multifaceted, one-of-a-kind talent who's been through a lot. Take a look.

The trend of successful pregnancy comedies led by Knocked Up and Juno continued as Baby Mama took top honors. Harold and Kumar took second but still managed to pull in almost $3million over its $12 million budget. Last week's other new release, Deception, fell way behind the pack and took in only $2.3 million to finish in tenth place. Here are the final numbers:

1. Baby Mama: $17.4 million
2. Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay: $14.9 million
3. The Forbidden Kingdom: $11.2 million
4. Forgetting Sarah Marshall: $11 million
5. Nim's Island: $4.5 million

Only two new releases this week, but one of them is a doozy.

Iron Man
What's It All About: At this point I doubt this film needs any introduction, but here goes. Based on the long running Marvel comic, Iron Man stars Robert Downey Jr. as Tony Stark, a wealthy arms manufacturer (because an impoverished arms manufacturer would just be silly). When Stark is captured and forced to build a dangerous weapon, he instead makes a high tech suit of armor and uses it to escape. He further refines the suit and uses it to stop a conspiracy that threatens the world.
Why It Might Do Well: Well, we're talking one of the widest releases we've seen in awhile, a 90% fresh rating at Rottentomatoes.com, and some kickass trailers and clips that have been generating a lot of buzz. Also, we've got a lead actor with some serious star power, and a supporting cast that includes Terrence Howard, Jeff Bridges and Gwyneth Paltrow. Obviously this is next week's number one flick, the question is just how much will it rake in?
Why It Might Not Do Well: If every single person involved with this film went on network television tomorrow and shot a puppy, people would still flock to this one.
Number of Theaters: 3,800
Prediction: $62 million

Made of Honor
What's It All About: When Tom's (Patrick Dempsey) best friend Hannah (Michelle Monaghan) leaves for a six week business trip he sees how empty his life is without her. He resolves to propose when she returns, but Hannah surprises Tom with the announcement of her engagement to someone else, and a request that he be her "maid" of honor.
Why It Might Do Well: This romantic comedy is different enough from Iron Man to snap up the remainder of the audience that's not into the super hero stuff.
Why It Might Not Do Well: The fact that this is the only other film being released the same weekend as what will probably be one of the biggest movies of the year seems to indicate a film the studio has little faith in.
Number of Theaters: 2,700
Prediction: $14 million

This seems like the most straightforward prediction we've had in a long while, which is a sure fire sign we're heading into the Summer blockbuster season. Here's how I see things working out:
1. Iron Man
2. Made of Honor
3. Baby Mama
4. Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall

Still no perfect scores this week, but our group average is up over last week. Here's how everyone did in our weekly box office prediction competition.
1. Ray: 13
1. Mario: 13
1. Brent Todd: 13
1. kevin: 13
2. Erin: 11
3. Matt: 9
3. matt: 9
3. AJ Wiley: 9
3. Chris: 9
4. cubitfox: 8
4. zach: 8
4. Mike: 6
4. Sam: 6
4. plinstrot: 6
5. Matthew: 4
5. I Eat Robots: 4
5. DarkAgair: 4
5. Aaron: 4
5. Awesomepants: 4
5. Prateek S: 4

Will the latest feature film from Marvel rule with an iron fist? Yeah, probably, but what about the rest of the top five? Join in on the fun. Post your predictions for the top five movies in the comments section below before 5:00PM Eastern Time on Friday. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie.

A French master topped an American actress' directorial debut this weekend. Claude Lelouch's Roman de Gare (Samuel Goldwyn) opened at two theaters in Manhattan and grossed $25,500, for a very nice $12,750 per-screen average, according to estimates compiled by Box Office Mojo. The French-language thriller scored 73% positive at Rotten Tomatoes, though a number of critics had reservations about its twisty, playful nature.

Helen Hunt's comedy/drama Then She Found Me (ThinkFilm) hauled in $8,266 per-screen at nine locations. Hunt plays a teacher who must deal with an unlikely fiancee (Matthew Broderick), a volatile love interest (Colin Firth), and the unexpected appearance of her mother (Bette Midler). Ryan Stewart felt that the story is "as old as the hills," but that it was "still executed with style."

Standard Operating Procedure (Sony Classics), the latest doc by Errol Morris, has generated controversy not only because of its subject matter -- the story behind the notorious Abu Gharib prison photos -- but because Morris has admitted to paying some of the interviewees. Reviews were mostly positive (79%, according to Rotten Tomatoes). Opening at two theaters in Manhattan, the film averaged $7,450 per screen.

Two holdovers continued to perform well. Tom McCarthy's excellent The Visitor (Overture) expanded into 76 theaters nationwide and averaged $6,684 per screen in its third week of release. Stephen Walker's heartwarming music doc Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) expanded from 23 to 56 locations and grossed an average of $4,017 per screen.

Despite an excellent review showing on Rotten Tomatoes, some people forgot about Forgetting Sarah Marshall. As Matt Bradshaw notes in his Box Office column, the comedy came in second to The Forbidden Kingdom, bringing in just $17.3 million. Steve Mason says we might be suffering from "Judd Apatow fatigue." Whether that's the case or not, it's a shame.

While I tried to fight off my high expectations for the film to save myself from potential disappointment, I failed. I was ridiculously eager to see the film, so I grabbed my friend and ran to watch it on Friday night. Luckily, I didn't need to quash the anxiety. We both laughed hysterically and loved it. In fact, I enjoyed it more than both Knocked Up and Superbad.

If you don't agree, fair enough, but for those who might be apprehensive about going out to see the comedy, I want to give you a few reasons why you should give it a chance. Head after the jump for 5 reasons to see Forgetting Sarah Marshall.

Everyone who took part in last week's competition, myself included, failed to foresee The Forbidden Kingdom outdoing Forgetting Sarah Marshall, but the martial arts actioner was the clear winner. Prom Night held on to third place, content in the knowledge that it had already earned back its $20 million budget last week. Here's the rundown:

1. The Forbidden Kingdom: $20.9 million
2. Forgetting Sarah Marshall: $17.3 million
3. Prom Night: $9.1 million
4. 88 Minutes: $6.8 million
5. Nim's Island: $5.7 million

Opening this week, we have:

What's It All About: Tina Fey plays an executive dying to be a mother, and when she finds out she's unable to conceive, she must turn to a flaky but fertile Amy Poehler
Why It Might Do Well: Fey is awesome on 30 Rock, and though I usually get flack for saying this, I thought the Fey/Poehler Weekend Update team on SNL was one of the best in the show's history. And with a supporting cast that includes Sigourney Weaver, Steve Martin and Maura Tierney, I am so there. The 88% fresh rating from Rottentomatoes.com is icing on the cake.
Why It Might Not Do Well: The poster is so darn zany I could just puke.
Number of Theaters: 2,500
Prediction: $18 million

Why We Can't Wait to See It: Because in pretty much every film he's made -- big, boring, insipid not-quite-sequels excepted -- Steve Carell brings the funny. The trailers look surprisingly solid, and the cast -- including Anne Hathaway, Dwayne Johnson, Alan Arkin and Terence Stamp -- is top-notch.

Why It Might Do Well: Because people just plain like Carell -- and the film's plot pitch where a secret agency's having their top people exposed forces them to shove unknown agents out into the field is, in fact, a solid story-driven reason for an incompetent like Max to placed in harm's way. ...

Why It Might Not Do Well: We may be a little tired of Baby Boomer-era nostalgia TV getting splashed up on the big screen; anyone else remember how well I Spy turned out?

Fun Fact: Get Smart was created by Buck Henry and Mel Brooks -- yes, the men behind The Graduate and Young Frankenstein.

Trivia:


Answer Key

Why We Can't Wait to See It: Well, it's Indy. That alone is pretty much all you have to say, isn't it? Harrison Ford is back as Dr. Jones, and while some of the folks around for the ride are new (Cate Blanchett, Shia LeBouf and others), the return of Karen Allen as Marion Ravenwood is reason enough for old-school fans to be excited.

Why It Might Do Well: Again, it's Indy -- and a long-anticipated return to the big screen for one of the most beloved movie franchises of modern times. Plus, the only big opener the week before is Prince Caspian -- which, while anticipated, probably won't pull people from the ticket lines opening week.

Why It Might Not Do Well: The question's less if it will do well than if it will be good; interviews have suggested that George Lucas has taken a heavy hand in the writing this time around -- which, frankly, hasn't been a good sign in recent years. Plus there's that disturbing gimmick in the trailer with Indy saying "I thought that was closer ..."; back in the day, Spielberg, Lucas and Ford would have let that go unsaid. ...

Fun Fact: Crystal Skull takes place 19 years after the events of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade -- the same amount of time it's been since we've seen Indy on-screen.

Trivia:


Answer Key

There was a report in the Hamilton College student newspaper about a recent visit paid to the school by Thomas Tull (a Hamilton alumnus), chairman and CEO of Legendary Pictures, the successful production company responsible for respectable hits like Batman Begins, deplorable indulgences like 10,000 BC, and middle-of-the-road successes like Superman Returns. The article surveys numerous issues from Tull's visit, most of which pertain to his professional history. Near the end, however, it's noted that Tull "hopes to invoke more of the image of 'an angry god'" with the next Superman film. Subtitled Man of Steel, it's a sequel that's been in the works for quite some time.

Wonders Slashfilm: "Maybe Man of Steel will have a Superman who begins to make irrational emotion-based decisions, throwing cars around out of anger, which will paint him as an Angry God in The Daily Planet?" Maybe, but that's a big deduction for what appears to be a throwaway statement. Whether or not Tull even has specific details about the content of the next Superman film isn't clear, but his emphasis on the character's strength, rather than his pathos, sounds like a response to criticisms of the last movie. Many audiences found it light on action and heavy on a lot of needless other things. Superman Returns was hardly a flop, grossing over $200 million in the U.S. alone, but it could have done much bigger business if it sacrificed some of the contemplative drama for a little more speed.

Up front, let me confess an error I made regarding Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed, the new documentary about the Intelligent Design movement. In Friday's edition of "The (Mostly) Indie Film Calendar," I said the movie was "a documentary about how people who believe in evolution are big meanies who don't understand why 'Intelligent Design' (i.e., that God made everything) should be taught in science classes, too." This was a mistaken summary of what Intelligent Design is.

Having now watched the film -- which is terrible, filled with specious reasoning, false dichotomies, and self-contradiction -- I find that I did learn a thing or two. I had assumed that Creationism and Intelligent Design were the same thing. They are not. Creationism is the belief that God created the Earth more or less the way it's described in Genesis. Intelligent Design merely holds that certain things about life on this planet are best explained by something supernatural. Where there are gaps in scientific knowledge, ID fills 'em in.

There is plenty of overlap between Creationism and ID, of course, and I guess you could say all Creationists are also ID-ists. But you can certainly believe in ID without believing God made the world in six days. The film says that this misunderstanding is why so many scientists are so virulently anti-ID -- because they think it's Creationism, which truly doesn't have much scientific evidence in its favor.

College professors rule! Well, at least the one that Richard Jenkins plays so well in Tom McCarthy's The Visitor (Overture Films). The comedy-drama expanded to 18 theaters in its second week of release and averaged $9,055 per-screen to remain in the #1 position, according to estimates compiled by Box Office Mojo. Check the film's web site to see where it will be opening in the next couple of weeks (click on "in select theaters now").

Debuting indie films did not fare so well, judging strictly by per-screen averages, but it's notable that Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed (Rocky Mountain Pictures), opened on more than 1,000 screens and made $2,997 per location for a total of more than $3 million for the weekend. The doc follows Ben Stein as he chases down Ferris Bueller ... oops, wrong movie! This one's about "intelligent design" in the classroom.

Opening on just one screen, Anamorph (IFC Films) grossed $3,000. Willem Dafoe stars as an NYPD detective investigating a serial killer. Critics were not kind: Anamorph scored just 28% positive at Rotten Tomatoes. David Hudson at GreenCine Daily rounds up pertinent quotes.

Two other holdovers did better as they expanded their runs. Young At Heart (Fox Searchlight), the "elderly folk chorus that sings modern rock songs" documentary, increased its theater count to 33 and averaged $4,393 per screen. Hou Hsiao-Hsien's gentle drama The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) proved its appeal beyond New York City, making $3,572 per-screen at 11 locations.