box office prediction Tagged Articles at Cinematical

Unsurprisingly, the Samuel L. Jackson thriller Lakeview Terrace won box office honors last weekend with a solid $15 mil. Of the week's two wild cars, one fizzled (Ghost Town), while the other prospered (Igor). Lesson learned: Never underestimate adorable hunchbacks.

1. Lakeview Terrace - $15.0 million
2. Burn After Reading - $11. 0 million
3. My Best Friend's Girl - $8.2 million
4. Igor - $7.8 million
5. Righteous Kill - $7.4 million

This week's openings:

Eagle Eye
What It's About: Shia LaBeouf is forced to do all sorts of nasty things by an unfriendly cell phone caller.
Why It Might Do Well: LaBeouf is insanely popular, and so is talking on your cell phone wherever you go (including screenings of Eagle Eye).
Why It Might Not: Reviews have not been kind, but most PG-13 LaBeouf fans could probably care less.
Number of Theaters: 3,300
Prediction: $26 million

Unless you've been summering on the planet Cybertron you're probably aware that Transformers kicked some chrome-plated butt over the 4th of July Holiday, making a grand total of $155.4 million from its opening on July 3 through last weekend, and going on to make $165 million as of July 9. This sets a record for the biggest opening week for a non-sequel, an honor previously held by the first installment of the Spider-man franchise. The other new contender from last week, the Robin Williams comedy License to Wed also opened on the third, pulling in $17.8 million so far.

Here's last weekend's top five:
1. Transformers $70.5 million
2. Ratatouille $29 million
3. Live Free or Die Hard $17.7 million
4. License to Wed $10.4 million
5. Evan Almighty $8.7 million

This weekend we'll see some magical shenanigans at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry, and some much darker deeds being committed in the noble pursuit of scaring the bejesus out of the audience. Here's what's coming:

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
What's It All About: This adaptation of the fifth novel in the hugely popular Harry Potter series sees Harry (Daniel Radcliffe) and Dumbledore's (Michael Gambon) warnings that Lord Voldemort has returned falling upon deaf ears, and the toad-faced Dolores Umbridge (Imelda Staunton) seizes power at Hogwart's.
Why It Might Do Well: The series' previous installment, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire took in $102.6 million on opening weekend, and the one before that, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, had a $93.6 million dollar open. With the final novel in the series, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, seeing publication this month, the Potter publicity machine has been turned up to a Spinal Tap-esque 11.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Unless Hagrid has a nude scene, I honestly don't see this happening, though with Transformers in only its second week, Order of the Phoenix may not quite reach the numbers of its predecessors.
Number of Theaters: 4,285
Prediction: $95 million

Captivity
What's It All About: Elisha Cuthbert plays a fashion model who is kidnapped and forced to endure weeks of grueling torture at the hands of an obsessed stalker.
Why It Might Do Well: The use of some highly controversial ads (click here for the full story) got this flick in hot water with the Motion Picture Association of America, and since there is no such thing as bad publicity I'm sure there are lots of folks who are curious to see what it's all about.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Based on the disappointing box office numbers for Hostel Part II (only $8.2 million on its opening weekend), the ship may have sailed on the torture/horror trend.
Number of Theaters: 1,500
Prediction: $6 million

Although I managed a perfect score on last weekend's top five prediction (as did several of our readers) it won't be going to my head, particularly since I finished dead last the week before. Sometimes the magic works, sometimes it doesn't. This week Doc Brown took his DeLorean a few days into the future (either that, or he drove down to Tijuana) and brought back the following prediction:

1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
2. Transformers
3. Ratatouille
4. Live Free or Die Hard
5. License to Wed

Last Week's Prediction Ranking
1. Matt: 16
1. The 13th: 16
1. Gregory R. Rubinstein: 16
1. Dylsan: 16
1. Chris: 16
1. Mario: 16
1. Bubba8193: 16
1. Ray: 16
2. Ethan Stanislawski: 13
3. Paul D: 12
3. Brad: 12
3. Opp-Neg: 12
3. Bradley Thom: 12
3. Anna07: 12

As always 5:00PM on Saturday is the cut-off for entries in our weekly box office prediction contest. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie.

Last week was pretty easy to call; anyone who didn't think Shrek the Third would reign triumphant must have something against ogres of color. Our winners, each with perfect predictions, were bubba8193 (again!) and Mario. Congrats, guys. Your auras of superiority are in the mail.

1. Shrek the Third - $122 million
2. Spider-Man 3 - $28.5 million
3. 28 Weeks Later - $5.1 million
4. Disturbia - $3.6 million
5. Georgia Rule - $3.4 million

This week? Hmm, tough call. Will Lindsay Lohan's fans mobilize and launch Georgia Rule to the top of the charts?

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
What It's About: Jack Sparrow (Johnny Depp) is trapped in Davy Jones' locker at the World's End, dead (or "dead") and insane; Elizabeth Swann (Keira Knightley), feeling guilty for abandoning him, leads the rescue brigade; Will Turner (Orlando Bloom) wants to free his father from his debt to Davy Jones; and Barbossa (Geoffrey Rush) (who was dead, but is feeling much better) is antsy about the East India Company, which -- using Davy Jones (Bill Nighy) as its pawn -- is threatening to end the pirates' way of life forever. The motley crew heads to Singapore, where Sao Feng (Chow Yun-Fat) possesses not just the maps to the World's End but also the power to convene the Brethren Court of Pirate Lords.
Why It Might Break the Record: Last summer's Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest set a box office record with an opening take of $135 million; this summer the title shifted to Spider-Man 3 ($151 million). Seeing as how the blockbusters seem to be setting new records practically every week, why shouldn't At World's End be any different? On top of that, this installment, which has all the members of the franchise returning, is something of a finale to the series ... even if it isn't (based on Depp's recent comments) actually the end.
Why It Might Not Break the Record: At 168 minutes, and with so many plotlines (some would say too many), it's not for the casual viewer. The length also limits the number of times per day that a theater can show the film; Spider-Man 3, if you're keeping score, was 139 minutes long. (Cranky old lady rant: Whatever happened to the days when two hours was considered long? Anyone? Anyone?)
Prediction: $168 million

Lesson for the day: Never listen to my friend Kevin. Last week, he insisted to me that Delta Farce had no shot of making the top five, and that The Ex, for all its flaws, was a shoo-in for the fifth spot. "But, Larry the Cable Guy!" I said. "He's got ... fans! Or something." Nah, he said, go with The Ex. So I did, and as it turned out, I was wrong. Wrong, the opposite of right. (If you got that movie quote, you're my new best friend.) Here's how it shook out:

1. Spider-Man 3 - $60 million
2. 28 Weeks Later - $10 million
3. Georgia Rule - $5.9 million
4. Disturbia - $4.8 million
5. Delta Farce - $3.5 million

Two of our posters, being undistracted by The Kevin, achieved perfect scores last week: three-peater bubba8193 (ho-hum, dominance is just SO boring, isn't it?) and chris (welcome to the top, dawg!). But enough about piddling $3 million movies. (The Ex, for the record, earned $1.4 million and didn't even make the top ten.) Move over, Spidey, there's a new green goblin -- umm, ogre -- in town ...

Shrek the Third
What It's About: The big green guy (Mike Myers) finds himself heir to the throne when his father-in-law, King Harold, kicks the bucket. Trouble is, Shrek wants no part of this king business, so he sets off to find Fiona's cousin Artie (Justin Timberlake), who might be up for it instead -- or he would, if he weren't already reigning as King of the High School Losers (Never Made It With the Ladies). Meanwhile, Prince Charming (Rupert Everett) mobilizes a team of villains so that he can take the throne for himself.
Why It Might Do Well: It's the only blockbuster opening this weekend -- in fact, the only movie opening wide, period -- so that's kind of a no-brainer. Plus, as the summer's first true family film (it's rated PG, whereas Spider-Man 3 is rated PG-13), it will certainly overtake Spidey for the No. 1 spot.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Shrek earned $42 million its opening weekend; Shrek 2 an astonishing $108 million, setting a record for biggest opening for an animated film. Will this third installment shatter its own record? It could ... or it's possible audiences might be suffering from a little bit of Shrek fatigue.
Prediction: $110 million

Unless you've been cooped up David Blaine-like in a box somewhere, you know that last week Spider-Man 3 finished first, shattering the box-office record with a $151 million opening. Given the inevitability of No. 1, you'd think all our predictors would knock this one out of the park -- but no one ended up with a perfect prediction. Here's how the box office top five shook down:

1. Spider-Man 3 - $151 million
2. Disturbia - $5.7 million
3. Fracture - $3.4 million
4. The Invisible - $3.1 million
5. Next - $2.8 million

bubba8193 finished first -- again! -- with evilone1414 nipping at his heels. Aaaand I finished last ... again. (Full list of results after the jump.) Of course, I threw the whole thing to make you guys look good; as a wise man once said, everything I do, I do it for you. But seriously, since there's nothing I can say about Spidey that hasn't already been said, I'll put this out there instead: What ... is the deal ... with Disturbia? Have that many people never heard of Rear Window? Does Shia LaBeouf really have that many fans? Or is everything else out there just that unappealing? OK. Letting it go now. I promise.

28 Weeks Later
What It's About: In this follow-up to Danny Boyle's zombie thriller 28 Days Later, survivors return to London only to face the aftermath of the rage virus: paranoia, betrayal, cowardice, people eating each other. Good times.
Why It Might Do Well: 28 Days Later was a sleeper hit, earning $45 million domestically, and reviews for this one have generally been positive. C'mon, who doesn't love zombies?
Why It Might Not Do Well: Most of its target audience will be seeing Spider-Man 3 this weekend, and this feels like the umpteenth horror movie to come out in 2007.
Prediction: $15 million

Last week, our old pal bubba8193 triumphed against evilone1414 and rose to the top of the leaderboard, perfectly predicting the following box office top five:

Spider-Man 3
What It's About: Just when everything's going gangbusters for Peter Parker -- the city loves Spider-Man, he's got a hot girlfriend -- an alien black goo gloms onto him, turns his suit black and makes him think he's a badass. Meanwhile, three villains mobilize against him: Flint Marko, Uncle Ben's actual murderer, who escapes from prison and is molecularized into Sandman; Eddie Brock, a rival photographer who also gets infected with the goo and turns into the toothy, maniacal Venom; and Peter's old friend Harry Osborn, aka New Goblin, who's still intent on avenging his father's death.
Why It Might Do Well: Might do well? Really the question here is: Will it break the domestic record for biggest box-office opening ever? The figure to aim for is $135.6 million, the amount earned by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest last July. Spider-Man 3 faces much less competition than Pirates did, and it's opening on a record 4,252 screens; on the other hand, some of the earliest buzz from the blogosphere has been mixed. But Spidey is review-proof -- and at any rate, most agree that the action in this film is better than ever.
Why It Might Not Do Well: There could be a nationwide blackout. Aliens could land on Earth and insist that all theaters be dedicated to showing their home movies. The possibilities are endless, really.
Prediction: $138 million

Lucky You
What It's About: Eric Bana plays Huck, a professional gambler who can't seem to hold onto anything -- love, money or his relationship with his father (Robert Duvall), a legendary poker player. Huck's attempts to get a seat at the World Series of Poker coincide with his meeting a cute, poker-ignorant singer Billie (Drew Barrymore) and warily reuniting with his estranged dad.
Why It Might Do Well: People who have no interest in seeing Spider-Man may head for this film, which was directed by Curtis Hanson (L.A. Confidential). And those who love Eric Bana, poker and Vegas (I'm guilty and I'm proud) will find plenty to enjoy here.
Why It Might Not Do Well: There's a lot of poker in it. A looooot of poker, which the generally weak reviews have noted. And while Barrymore can headline a hit movie, she's just a sidenote to this story; Bana isn't a big enough star yet to drive crowds to the theaters. Oh, and also, um ... Spider-Man 3.
Prediction: $8 million

What up, movie peeps? First, let's see what happened with last week's predict 'em game. When the dust cleared Sunday, the final top five looked like this:

1. Disturbia - $13.5 million
2. Fracture - $11.2 million
3. Blades of Glory - $7.8 million
4. Vacancy - $7.6 million
5. Meet the Robinsons - $7.1 million

Our winner? Evilone1414, who, just like a certain movie about a teenaged peeping tom, was king of the hill for the second week in a row -- getting every pick right except for reversing the order of Vacancy and Meet the Robinsons. Evil rules! As for myself, I finished dead last ... again. Looks like this week -- the notorious Last Weekend of April, not known for its high-quality fare (last year's No. 1: RV) -- I may need the services of someone who can actually see the future. Now, who would that be?

Next
What It's About: Nicolas Cage stars as a small-time clairvoyant magician and card shark who, after having a vision of L.A. being annihilated, must decide whether or not to use his power for good.
Why It Might Do Well: It's an incredibly weak field of movies this weekend, with everyone getting out of the way of the advancing Spider-Man juggernaut. Next is the only standout in terms of marketing and expectations, and Nicolas Cage is certainly a draw (just look at Ghost Rider).
Why It Might Not Do Well: Reason number one would have to be Cage's hair, which is giving Tom Hanks' unfortunate 'do in The Da Vinci Code a run for its money. Help me think of a name for this hairstyle: the Emo Phillips? Reason number two: The film's pretty generic as far as action movies go, and probably wouldn't be a blip on anyone's radar were it opening in any month other than April.
Prediction: $14 million

Well, I was a tad overly optimistic about Grindhouse last week, wasn't I? Turns out not that many people want to sit through three hours of zombie gore and vehicular manslaughter. Go figger. This week, just in time for Friday the 13th, we've got loads of movies opening, most of them thrillers. It's doubtful any of them will make a top-25 list of best thrillers, but they should provide for an entertaining weekend nonetheless.

Perfect Stranger
What It's About: A journalist (Halle Berry), suspecting a philandering businessman (Bruce Willis) of killing her friend, poses as an office temp and plays a seductive cat-and-mouse game with him to get at the truth.
Why It Might Do Well: Berry and Willis are big, big stars, each capable of headlining a hit movie on his/her own; and Sony has put some major marketing muscle behind this flick. Plus, Halle Berry is the most beautiful person on the planet. That isn't particularly relevant here, but I thought it needed to be said.
Why It Might Not Do Well: The reviews haven't been great, and it's rated R, which will limit its audience to adults and determined teens with cool parents and/or fake IDs.
Prediction: $15 million

Disturbia
What It's About: Shia LaBeouf stars as a troubled kid who's sentenced to house arrest for acting out in class. Having nothing better to do than spy on his neighbors, he and his friends start to think one of them may be a serial killer. It's kind of like Rear Window, except the protagonist's younger, not in a wheelchair, and, um, under arrest.
Why It Might Do Well: Going head-to-head with Perfect Stranger in the battle of the weekend thrillers, Disturbia has one crucial weapon in its corner: It's rated a teen-friendly PG-13. And LaBeouf's star is on the rise: Not only will he star in two big animated movies this year (Transformers and Surf's Up), but he's also just been tapped to co-star with Harrison Ford in the fourth Indiana Jones movie.
Why It Might Not Do Well: While he's certainly an up-and-comer, Shia's still no Bruce Willis. The biggest names besides LaBeouf are Carrie-Anne Moss (as his mom -- I don't know why this depresses me, but it does) and David Morse as the maybe-murderous neighbor.
Prediction: $15 million

Things are heating up on the movie front, and not soon enough. We've got a brand-new Fincher movie and more animals than you can shake a stick at. Whatever that means.

Zodiac: Fincher's back. Did you hear me? Fincher's back -- go! Run, to the theaters, now! Who knows when it might happen again? I'm kidding, of course. But the fact that the director of Seven and Fight Club has lately been taking so long between movies (his last was Panic Room, in 2002) means the arrival of Zodiac is almost something of an Event.

I'm happy to say that the film -- in which Jake Gyllenhaal, Robert Downey Jr. and Mark Ruffalo are all characters trying to track down the 1960s San Francisco serial killer who calls himself Zodiac -- does not disappoint. It's a smart, intense thriller, brilliantly acted, and far more psychologically disturbing than violent (though there are a couple of early scenes that are not for the squeamish). The only drawback is that at slightly over 2 1/2 hours, it's kind of long; and given the subject matter, the R rating, and Fincher's reputation for violence, it's not as broadly marketable a film as, say, a movie starring John Travolta and Tim Allen ...
Get showtimes & tix | Watch trailer | See a clip

Happy Oscar weekend, everybody! There's still time to finalize your Oscar picks -- if you need help, check out Moviefone's Oscar predictions (but don't blame us if you don't win, because free will is a powerful thing). And if you still haven't entered an Oscar pool, wander on over to our Movie Madness pick 'em game; judging by how good some of you box office predictors are, one of you is bound to win the 42-inch plasma TV. I can't win, because I'm not eligible, and no, I'm not bitter about that AT ALL. And now, on to the weekend's box office:

The Number 23: It's more than just Michael Jordan's number -- there's a whole school of thought surrounding 23, which apparently shows up everywhere if you know where to look: It's the number of chromosomes each parent contributes to a child's DNA, the number of times Julius Caesar was stabbed, etc. Jim Carrey stars as a guy who reads a thriller about the phenomenon and becomes obsessed with it, spending all his time not only imagining himself as the novel's protagonist and worrying he might be capable of murder, but also doing lots of math. Though it's certainly not your typical Carrey comedy, the man's always a big draw, and this seems like the film to give Ghost Rider a run for its money.
Get showtimes & tix | Watch the trailer | Count down Carrey's best

Reno 911!: Miami: The dunderheaded cops of Comedy Central's hit TV show (well, it's not about to rival American Idol, but it's a hit according to cable TV standards) storm the big screen in a comedy in which they have to save a convention center from terrorists. Jack Bauer they are not. I wasn't able to see this film, but my colleagues did, and they thought it was the bee's kneees. (Translation: hilarious.) It'll play well to young adults and teens, the same folks who made Borat -- which was also based on a cable TV show -- a success, so watch out. This may be the biggest thing to happen to Reno since the Great Reno Balloon Race.
Get showtimes & tix | Watch the trailer | Watch a clip

The Astronaut Farmer: Admit it, when you were a little kid, you wanted to be an astronaut -- because, as John Cusack points out in The Sure Thing, you get "all the Tang you can drink." In this feel-good film, Billy Bob Thornton plays a guy who never outgrew that dream; but when a crisis forces him to drop out of the Air Force, he starts building a rocket in his backyard. It's no lawn chair and balloons, but this crazy kid might be onto something. Astronaut Farmer is rated PG, and technically it's a family film, so in theory it should take some of Bridge to Terabithia's audience; but there hasn't been a ton of marketing for this film, and despite some positive reviews it may have a hard time taking off. (Sorry.)
Get showtimes & tix | Watch the trailer | See photos

Also Opening Wide: The Abandoned, a horror movie set on a remote farm in Russia. It could surprise, given that horror tends to do well; but there aren't any big names in this one, so I'm guessing it'll hover just under the top five.

Here we go. Earlier this week my colleague Tommy said I told him I planned to "dominate" this weekend, which I would like to say here and now is a total lie and a big, fat jinx. Thanks, man. So come all ye faithful box office predictors, it's all you this weekend. Deadline: Saturday at 2pm. And have fun watching the Oscars!

1. Ghost Rider
2. The Number 23
3. Bridge to Terabithia
4. Reno 911!: Miami
5. Norbit

POST: What's your weekend top five prediction?

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