It's hard to get a statistical breakdown of the Academy's membership, but over the years I've formed a mental picture of the Academy's average member. He's male; he's been in show business for decades, usually as an actor; he's wealthy enough to be "liberal"; he's white. He sees the nominated films at home, on screeners, possibly while enjoying a sandwich, instead of in the theater. And he's more inclined to go for a glossy feel-good movie over a grimmer one, or for a sweeping, old-fashioned Hollywood period epic over a gritty drama about actual present day concerns. (See also Forrest Gump vs. Pulp Fiction; Gladiator vs. Traffic.)

In short, Ernest Borgnine.

So, when I try to handicap Oscar picks, I ask: WWEBD? This is often a very different set of films from what I'd like to see win, and the Virtual Borgnine process isn't foolproof (last year, VB went 5/6; in 2006, VB tanked with a record of 3/6, somewhat damaged by my overlooking when Borgnine -- the real one, not the virtual one -- publicly stated he wouldn't see Brokeback Mountain). But, mostly, it's an exercise in looking into the thought process behind the maddening nature of the Oscars. All quotes are, as ever, rough intimations of the Borgnine thought process ...

Strange Wilderness is a new comedy starring Steve Zahn as the host of a wilderness television show with plummeting ratings. To increase viewership, he assembles a motley crew and sets out on an expedition to find Bigfoot. The cast includes Jonah Hill, Justin Long, Ashley Scott, Peter Dante, Jeff Garlin, and -- believe it or not -- Ernest Borgnine! The red band trailer for Wilderness just hit the internet. (Need a little incentive to check it out? There's nudity. You're welcome.) Cinematical spoke with two of the film's stars -- Kevin Heffernan (of Broken Lizard fame) and Allen Covert (pretty much every Adam Sandler movie, Grandma's Boy) -- about this film and their careers. First up is Kevin Heffernan...

Cinematical: Who do you play in the film?

Kevin Heffernan: I play a character named Whitaker. When they go out on this trip, they need to hire an animal wrangler. I'm a car mechanic and I have no animal wrangling experience. Basically, I'm just looking for a job. So I go and interview with them and I win the job but I have no knowledge of animals. I don't even like them that much really! It's got this great ensemble cast and some great cameos...

Cinematical: It does have such a great comedy cast, was improvisation encouraged on the set?

KH: Yeah man. The script was so good, I mean it was written by Fred Wolf and Peter Gaulke who have a lot of comedy writing experience, but it was just one of those kind of movies where there's always like six or seven people on the screen. And they left it free for us to do the improv stuff that we all love to do. So there were a lot of people going off, and they had to kind of pull you back to the script a little bit.

As if he didn't have too many comic book adaptations to write, Zak Penn (X-Men: The Last Stand) has been named as the new screenwriter of Joel Silver's remake of The Dirty Dozen, which we unfortunately heard about early last year. Originally it was reported that the movie was being scripted by three high-profile writers, André Nemec, Josh Appelbaum and Scott Rosenberg, but apparently their work isn't good enough and a rewrite is now necessary. Of course, one has to wonder why Silver needs to go through so many writers when there's already a perfectly good screenplay by Nunnally Johnson and Lukas Heller. It isn't like too much needs to be updated; the movie is set in World War II. I'm not familiar with E.M. Nathanson's original novel, though, and I guess the first movie may have omitted some things that the new adaptation could include. Anyway, I guess it just isn't common practice to reuse an old script when remaking an old movie.

For those who haven't seen The Dirty Dozen, it's about a group of military criminals sent on a suicide mission to assassinate Nazi officers. It features an iconic ensemble of actors, most of whom were reunited to voice characters in Small Soldiers as a sort of homage. To the faithful, it will be very, very difficult to see a new version without Lee Marvin, Charles Bronson, Jim Brown, Ernest Borgnine, Telly Savalas, Donald Sutherland, George Kennedy and the rest. I don't know what the time frame is for the production of the remake, but we may get to see it as early as next year. And if Silver can get the project going soon, maybe it can even go head to head with Penn's buddy Bryan Singer's Hitler assassination movie, Valkyrie. They might even make a good double feature -- or you can rent the original Dirty Dozen and then go see Valkyrie and more possibly experience a great double feature.

It may be the biggest and most rarely spoken-of dirty little secret about the
Oscars: For all of the usual blow-hard noise about 'Liberal Hollywood,' the Oscars are a surprisingly conservative institution. The average Academy voter is old, white, rich and possessed of the sort of vaguely fuzzy liberal sentiments you can only have after a lifetime of privilege. Oh, and a guy, too. When trying to read the mind of the Academy before the awards every year, I always ask "What would Ernest Borgnine do?" Just think like a multi-millionaire who's had maid service since the Eisenhower administration, and you too can deduce which films will get the big prize. This model explains why Forrest Gump wins Best Picture, and not, say, Pulp Fiction; or why Crash gets lauded for the kind of morality most of us have seen in a thousand after-school specials ... Because of Borgnine. And with that said, here's this year's most probable winners in the big categories, including what I imagine ol' Ernest might say about each.

Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

"A heckufan actor -- and it's hilarious seeing a heroin-snorting grandfather! And the great plot twist with his character! What? National Lampoon's Vacation? No, never saw it; why do you ask?"

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

"That voice! Wowsers! Plus, uh, that voice! And also? That voice! Wowsers!"

Best Actor: Forrest Whittaker, The Last King of Scotland

"That Whittaker kid did a heck of a job -- and besides, Petey O'Toole owes me $20 from that time we went drinking with Angie Dickinson. ..."

Best Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen

"Helen Mirren's performance was so amazing -- every time I looked at her, it was like staring at a piece of Canadian money. And she's had a heckufa career. ..."

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Departed

"Look, the man's been nominated so often, let's give it to him. I mean, that Eastwood kid is okay, but Marty? Come on."

Best Picture: The Queen

"Babel? More like "Welcome to Bummertown." And Letters from Iwo Jima? Subtitles make my eyes hurt. Little Miss Sunshine's cute as a pail of kittens, but a little thin. The Departed is fun, but a little violent ... and The Queen is a great story about a powerful, aging icon in a changing world ... so, I can definitely relate."

Oscar-winning actor Ernest Borgnine turned 90 today. Yes, he's still alive, and he's still working. But he would like to be working more. He told the Associated Press this week that few people are interested in hiring him, mostly because they don't know he's still around. If you look at his listing on the IMDb, though, you'll see that the actor is far from unemployed. Sure, he hasn't done anything high profile in decades, but when prompted for his opinion of the movies of today, he acted as though nothing is currently worth his talent.

His attitude seems ballsy even for a player of tough guy roles in The Dirty Dozen, The Wild Bunch and From Here to Eternity. But maybe because I grew up associating Borgnine first with Super Fuzz and then with The Poseidon Adventure, I can't entirely believe that he's spent the past thirty years looking for substantial parts. There had to be an opportunity for a comeback in there somewhere. But if there hasn't been, there is still time for one great swansong. For 90, he seems healthy enough. Considering two of the four movies he liked in 2006 were directed by Clint Eastwood, I would just like to put it out there that Borgnine needs a significant role in Clint's next picture.