I'm going for a highly praised film this week, rather than the big buzz, but you can check out a couple of other big releases after the jump.

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
In 1996, Julian Schnabel directed Basquiat. Led by the charming and unforgettable performance of Jeffrey Wright as the famous artist, the film laid out the art world of 1980s New York City with heart, and it showcased many of today's top names. It was the straightforward film.

Now there's Golden Globe winner Le Scaphandre et le Papillon, a feature that has taken Schnabel out of the straight-forward and into a world of tragedy and eye-opening imagination. It's a move similar to David Lynch taking on The Straight Story, but switched. Instead of strange complexity to charming simplicity, it's the other way around.

Diving Bell is the true story of what happened to Jean-Dominique Bauby, a man who had been the editor-in-chief of French Elle, until a sudden stroke has left him still -- only able to move one eyelid. It's like taking the thought of paralysis and upping it -- no legs, no arms, no lips. But it isn't just a sad story of despair. After being forced to adapt to his condition, he write the memoir that becomes this film, all with the simple, blinking eye.

When evaluating new movies, sometimes a critic will try to envision their staying power. It goes without saying that most movies have no shelf life; they're designed for one opening weekend, or perhaps a few months of buzz leading to an award, but that's it. A year from now, people will be ignoring them on airplanes and then they'll be on sale in the DVD bargain bin. Only a very few titles enter into the general zeitgeist forever, becoming a "cult film." A cult film can be a resurrected flop, something like The Wizard of Oz or Donnie Darko, or it can be a beloved hit, such as Casablanca or the Star Wars or Lord of the Rings films. The only constant is that it's impossible to predict. When I first reviewed Joel and Ethan Coen's The Big Lebowski (1998), I thought it suffered in comparison to Fargo, but now it has become a cult classic even bigger than its predecessor. Regardless, I thought I'd look at some of the movies currently playing on less than 400 screens and guess their fates.

I'll start with an easy one: Tim Burton's Sweeney Todd (316 screens). This is Burton and Johnny Depp's sixth film together, and they bring out the very best instincts in one another. They remind me of no less than Tod Browning and Lon Chaney's sinister collaborations during the silent era. (Their 1927 film The Unknown needs to be seen by everyone.) Depp gets to indulge in his taste for disguise (and funny voices) while Burton taps into his childlike nightmares for new images and ideas. Sure, they will probably never really make a grown-up movie, but several of their collaborations have already stood the test of time, and at least two: Edward Scissorhands (1990) and Ed Wood (1994) have cracked the edges of cult status. In fact, I'd go so far as to add Burton's Pee-wee's Big Adventure and Depp's Dead Man and Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas to make a great cult film festival.

A lot of my colleagues seem to be practically empurpled lately over the fact that Juno is being feted as not merely a success, but an indie/crossover success. This seems like a moot argument to me -- more on that in a second -- but first I will say that whether you think it is or isn't, you shouldn't overstep and give the PR machine too much credit here. Any studio shingle PR team worth its salt obviously has a 'media manipulation/other shenanigans' Trapper Keeper ready to be opened at a moment's notice if the clouds part and a movie actually connects with the public, but that's the point -- it has to connect first. Juno is a quadrant pimp and Once isn't -- that's why EW isn't piling on the plaudits for Once, even though it's currently enjoying 98 percent positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. If your response to this is "Um, yeah, I'm sure Once would love to have Fox Searchlight's Scrooge McDuck-swimming pool of money to buy some ads with" I would say, first, it does, and second, I'm increasingly of the opinion that most of that money is wasted on an ad-saturated public anyway.

All the marketing in the world and a bevy of A-list stars couldn't push a big movie like The Golden Compass even to $70 million, nor keep a crazy-hyped film like Cloverfield from swan-diving in its second weekend, so Juno clearly has legs, which is a rare commodity these days for any film, big or small. And to suggest that Juno's success rests on its popularity with teens, as some have, is wishful thinking. The scary reality is that today's 16 year-olds would probably like to see Step Up 2 in the Oscar race, not a Jason Reitman movie.

As my wife said, it's just not the Oscars if there's nothing to complain about. However, I was impressed that two of the year's toughest films, Paul Thomas Anderson's There Will Be Blood (389 screens) and Joel and Ethan Coen's No Country for Old Men took the most nominations. Typically, the Academy is attracted to much less challenging and easy-to-categorize films (like Atonement). Both films are fairly bleak in their vision, but I suspect There Will Be Blood will sneak out ahead for two reasons: it's an epic, and epics almost always win. And, to quote a character from Sunset Boulevard, it "says a little something" about the current sociopolitical climate.

One of the biggest controversies cropped up over the foreign film category, which came up with five nominations that no one has ever heard of. (The Counterfeiters opens sometime next month and Mongol opens in June.) Not to mention that they ignored top contenders like 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days (opening this week) and Persepolis (30 screens). Thankfully the outrage has begun discussions on changing the stupid, ancient rules for the category. Currently these rules require each country to submit one film, and multi-national films, such as The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (107 screens), to be disqualified. A small group of "specialists," rather than the Academy as a whole, votes on the small list of films. The documentary category was less obscure, and although I saw 19 documentaries in 2007, I only managed to see two of the five nominees, No End in Sight and Sicko. I have an Academy screener for Operation Homecoming that I hope to catch soon, and Taxi to the Dark Side (1 screen) is screening for Bay Area press next week.

Here's a strange twist to the writer's strike, and a postponement excuse we haven't heard before: New Line has pushed back Inkheart from March 2008 to January 2009 because of what the strike is doing to the television industry. Huh? According to Variety, the studio figures that without first-run programs on TV, it can't reach enough viewers through commercials, which is apparently the only way to market a movie these days.

OK, I kind of get it, but I hardly ever watch TV, and I've seen about 1,000 TV ads for Cloverfield this week, so there has to be a way to reach an audience by the original release date of March 18. They could have bought some time during the Super Bowl or the Oscars or, since its a family fantasy, any children's program. Seriously, kids don't care if their show is in repeats or not. I'm not going to go the usual route and accuse Inkheart of having production troubles. Judging by the trailer and Erik's visit to the film's set last year, the movie looks and sounds like it's a lot of fun, and anyway, it's reportedly all finished and ready to deliver to theaters. But since the TV marketing excuse seems odd, I'll assume that New Line is simply trying to figure out how to market a movie that could be accepted as just another fantasy movie and go mostly ignored by the same public that didn't go to see The Golden Compass or The Seeker: The Dark is Rising.

Those of you who need your Brendan Fraser fix need not cry for too long. The actor can still be seen in New Line's Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D, which comes out July 11, and Universal's The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor, out August 1.

In other release date news, New Line has also pushed back Pride and Glory, which stars Edward Norton and Colin Farrell (which I remember them filming in Brooklyn back in Summer 2005), from March 14 to sometime in 2009, though the reasoning behind this one may have had more to do with Norton and Farrell having other new releases coming out soon, than it had to do with the writer's strike effect on TV ads. Meanwhile, Universal has moved up its Judd Apatow-produced comedy Forgetting Sarah Marshall so that it doesn't have to go up against Sex in the City (which New Line will have no problem advertising on television) and Starship Dave (which I can't imagine really being a threat to anyone). Forgetting Sarah Marshall will now bow on April 18, which should perfectly fit in with some college kids' spring break. The same studio also pushed back its Baby Mama one weekend, from April 18 to April 25.

Quick: Name the last live-action film starring Nicole Kidman that absolutely rocked the box office? Okay, that's a tough one, I know, so how about the last live-action Nicole Kidman film that was any good? Hmm, that's also pretty tough. Fine, how about you just name the last live-action film that starred Nicole Kidman. That's pretty easy. The Golden Compass. It debuted last month. Yes, it's pretty clear that Kidman's appearance in a film is not all that it used to be, and fans aren't exactly flocking to the theater just because a film includes her name in the credits. Straight off filming the latest Baz Luhrmann epic, Australia, comes word from the sometimes-reliable Page Six that Kidman has dropped out of her next flick, The Reader, which was due to begin filming this month.

The reason? Well, they claim it's because the gal is pregnant, and she doesn't want to take on any work that could potentially harm her unborn child. Of course, Kidman, nor her reps, have confirmed that she is pregnant, and so I wouldn't go and take this news as official word. Page Six describes The Reader as being about "a man who carries a longtime sexual obsession for an older woman who's later prosecuted for war crimes after it emerges she was a member of the SS and a guard at Auschwitz." The film is based on Bernhard Schlink's book, and it co-stars Ralph Fiennes and Bruno Gatz. A rep for The Weinstein Co. said the "status on The Reader has not changed," so who knows what the real truth is.

As Page Six points out, perhaps now is a good time for Kidman to take a much-needed break. Her last three films, The Invasion ($15 million), Margot at the Wedding ($1.8 million) and The Golden Compass ($59 million) didn't exactly break any box office records, and so some time away to nurse that bun in the oven might be the appropriate move.

On the same day filming on Baz Luhrmann's Australia wrapped, the production released the first three official stills from the movie. Of course, clever photographers haven't been sitting around on their hands waiting for anything official -- they've been shooting candid photos all along, of everything from action shots of Nicole Kidman on horses and riding dinghies at sea to detailed photos of the set. But there's something to be said for photos that the director actually wants you to see. After looking at these three pictures, I can't say I'm discerning anything special though, except maybe for the one of Kidman seemingly about to twirl around while standing on a gazebo of some kind. It looks very 'Gone With the Wind' if you ask me. The other two are just a double headshot of the two leads and one gentleman who I'm going to guess is playing a native.

Meanwhile, perhaps sensing that The Golden Compass wasn't going to be all it was cracked up to be, Kidman was recently circumspect when talking to journalists about why she chooses her film roles. "I just choose off the cuff a lot of times, but primarily this was because Philip Pullman wrote me an amazing letter telling me that when he was writing the novels, he had me in mind," she said. "So that's hard to turn down. He's such a good novelist." Oh, so it's all his fault, huh? Let's hope she has a better answer for the studio bosses, next time they ask why they should continue forking over $15 mil per film.

What a surprise. Reuters has reported that The Vatican really doesn't like The Golden Compass. They're not the only ones, since this massive-budget film has been flopping around like a fish gasping for breath since it came out; however, they are the ones leading the religious charge. It's, obviously, not the film's cinematic shortcomings that are making waves, but rather, its religious commentary. This is the same content that was toned down by Chris Weitz in an attempt to make this a more palatable film to everyone -- as if they hadn't thought about the potential controversy when the project first came to be.

The Vatican newspaper, l'Osservatore Romano, has printed a long editorial ranting about the film, pretty much describing it as if it were an example of torture porn, rather than fantasy, calling it "the most anti-Christmas film possible," and that "when man tries to eliminate God from his horizon, everything is reduced, made sad, cold, and inhumane." These are the most religion-specific quotes coming out of Reuters' piece. The writer must be living one heck of a film-free life if this is not only the most anti-Christmas film made, but even possible! It's no surprise that they wouldn't be happy about the film, but statements like that just take the whole argument to a new level of ridiculous. It's one thing to comment on the aspects of a film that diverge from the church's beliefs. It's another to take exaggeration to new heights. Then again, we're in a world where one short peek at a nipple creates monumental fuss.

There's a continuing debate about whether or not computer-animated films should be eligible for visual effects awards. But despite the fine line seen by some, others are quick to point out that many effects artists have the same function on Surf's Up as they do on Spider-Man. To them, it should come as quite a triumph that the Oscar shortlist for the visual effects category includes two animated films, Ratatouille and Beowulf. According to the Hollywood Reporter, they join 13 other effects-heavy movies, including definite front-runners Transformers, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End and Spider-Man 3. The trade points out, however, that this is not the first time animated films have joined the effects race. Back in 1994, The Nightmare Before Christmas was one of the three nominees (against Cliffhanger and obvious winner Jurassic Park).

The animated effect issue is different now, though, then it was 14 years ago. Animated films now have their own Oscar category, and it's fair to say that is the place to recognize Ratatouille and Beowulf (actually Beowulf shouldn't be recognized at all). Typically movies nominated in the visual effects category are popular blockbusters that wouldn't otherwise receive notice from the Academy. Until there's an Oscar for best sci-fi/fantasy or action movie, this is one of the best ways for a little movie like Transformers to be put in the spotlight. Sure, I'm being sarcastic, but nonetheless I like the category being the place for those movies actually seen by the majority of Oscar telecast viewers.

ComingSoon.net has the latest poster for the big-screen version of The Spiderwick Chronicles, and I'm afraid it is just another installment of one-sheets that I think looks pretty 'blah.' Sure, they all have the same look and feel, but since they aren't exactly the most eye-catching designs in the first place, this is not necessarily a good thing. Directed by Mark Waters, Spiderwick is based on the best-selling fantasy series by Holly Black and Tony DiTerlizzi. This is the third poster release for the film, and there was also a teaser trailer released in July. I'll admit that after watching the teaser, I couldn't help but think the whole thing seemed an awful lot like Pan's Labyrinth -- but without all of the trauma.

Set in the US, the story revolves around three siblings who stumble across a "field guide to faeries" that opens up a parallel world. While the trio are discovering all kinds of benevolent little creatures, they come across some slightly less-friendly ones as well, and the latest poster even works in a little menace by adding 'Beware' to the heading. The family flick stars Sarah Bolger as Mallory Grace and Freddie Highmore as both Jared and Simon Grace. Rounding out the cast is David Strathairn as Arthur Spiderwick and Mary Louise Parker as Helen Grace.

There were over 12 books published as part of the series, including supplementary books, so there is a lot of material if Nickelodeon decides to make a franchise out of the film. Now that The Golden Compass' future is a little less sure, maybe Spiderwick can take the place of the "heir to Harry Potter" for children's fantasy films. The Spiderwick Chronicles opens on February 15th, 2008.

At an admitted production cost of $250 million, which may not even include marketing, The Golden Compass needed a smashing domestic opening weekend just to allay fears that it would cause major long-term problems for a struggling New Line Cinema. Instead, it pulled in an alarmingly low $26 million this weekend at a whopping 3,500 theaters, much closer to Eragon's disasterous $23 million opening weekend last Christmas than the $65 million opening weekend for the first Chronicles of Narnia film or the routine $90 and $100 million openings for the Harry Potter films. (The lowest opening weekend for a Lord of the Rings film was $47 million.) With muted buzz at best, expect Golden's numbers to plummet next weekend, especially with a new crowd of pre-Christmas contenders packing in, and total domestic box office to top out at around $80 million. Ouch.

Over at Nikki Finke's blog, she's declaring Golden a "wildly expensive flop" and specifically citing a low per screen average, which is another indicator that this thing will have no legs and certainly won't do well enough to warrant those two sequels. In fact, coming on the heels of other huge disappointments for New Line like Shoot em Up (a $5 million opening weekend) and Rendition (a $4 million opening weekend) and Mr. Woodcock (an $8 million opening weekend), this will likely spell the end for New Line chairman Bob Shaye, who shareholders already want to dump because of his ridiculous feud with golden goose Peter Jackson.

If there's any saving grace for this boondoggle, it will be international box office, which is important for a film like The Golden Compass. Even though the film may need to pull in over $700 million internationally just to be in the black, the Guardian is reporting that first day grosses in British cinemas were very healthy. The film has already grossed $4.3 million in Britain, which is very substantial, and a good indicator of how it will fare across Europe.

As The Golden Compass hits theaters, the trailer for New Line's next big fantasy flick, Inkheart, has arrived online alongside a website. When Cinematical flew to London earlier this year to visit the set of Compass, Inkheart was the other movie we got to check out ... and we (meaning I) dug it. Based on the novel by Cornelia Funk (which, like Compass, is the first in a trilogy -- with Inkspell and the soon-to-be-released Inkdeath following behind), Inkheart follows the story of a man named Mo (Brendan Fraser doing his best Mummy lite) who has the ability to read stories aloud and bring fictional characters to life. When he brings three characters from the book Inkheart into the real world, Mo and his daughter Meggie (Eliza Bennett) soon find they've bit off more than they can chew.

The greatest thing about Inkheart: The Movie? Andy Serkis plays the villain! Ah, but this time he's not covered in CGI (Gollum from Lord of the Rings) or ape hair (King Kong); yes, this time, Serkis gets to play a real-life guy (or, well, a character from a book who's brought to life). And based on the trailer, he looks great. Also starring in the film are Helen Mirren, Paul Bettany and Jim Broadbent. We'll have a full report from the set of Inkheart shortly before its March 19 release date. Until then, enjoy the trailer and let us know what you think.

Pretty much everyone involved in last week's box office competition correctly predicted that Enchanted would dig in and hold on to the number one spot for a second week in a row. Awake was last week's only new movie, but it quickly dozed off, finishing fifth behind flicks that have been out for two or three weeks. For those who like their fantasy films to be geared more toward grown ups, there's Beowulf in second place for its third week in the top five. This Christmas slipped from second to third this week and is on the verge of tripling its return on its $13 million dollar budget. Here's the final tally:

1. Enchanted: $16.4 million.
2. Beowulf: $8.2 million.
3. This Christmas: $7.9 million.
4. Hitman: $6 million.
5. Awake: $5.8 million.

It's another week with only one new release, but I suspect this one is going to shake things up nicely.

The Golden Compass
What's It All About: This is an epic fantasy set in a parallel universe and based on the first book in the His Dark Materials series by Philip Pullman. A 12-year-old girl trying to rescue a kidnapped friend winds up on a quest to save not only her world, but ours as well.
Why It Might Do Well: No doubt fans of Pullman's series will turn out to see this one, but for those of us who haven't read the book the trailer is about as spectacular as they come, with tons of digital eye candy and a cast that includes Nicole Kidman, Daniel Craig and Sam Elliot. I suspect this will be the movie to knock Enchanted off its thrown and take the top spot next week.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Critical response has been less than stellar. Rottentomatoes.com is giving the film a 38% rating based on 13 reviews.
Number of Theaters: 3,000
Prediction: $40 million

Here's how I think next weekend will play out:
1. The Golden Compass
2. Enchanted
3. Beowulf
4. This Christmas
5. Hitman

And here's how the weekly competition went:
1. mjd: 12
1. Bubba8193: 12
2. Anna07: 10
2. Matt: 10
3. Mike: 9
3. Josh: 9
3. Ray: 9
3. Mario: 9
4. Natasha: 8
4. Gregory Rubinstein: 8
5. Kevin Pinneo: 5

Feeling a little drained from all the hustle and bustle of Christmas shopping? Why not take some "me" time and share with the world what you think will be the top five movies of the coming weekend. Post your predictions in the comments section below before 5:00PM on Saturday. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie.

On the one hand, it'd be creepy to have your soul embodied in an animal who follows you around and never lets you be. On the other, it'd be pretty neat if said animal was an enormous, snow leopard, like Daniel Craig's Lord Asriel. I'd love, love, love a snow leopard of my very own. Anyway, I'm talking about The Golden Compass, and after months of waiting, the first five minutes of the film have gone up over at Yahoo. Based on the first novel of Philip Pullman's His Dark Materials trilogy, the film is about a 12-year-old girl named Lyra (Dakota Blue Richards) whose attempts to save a kidnapped friend bring her into a quest to save her world and ours.

The opening of the film lays out the basics -- the golden compass, the workings of the worlds, and the embodiment of souls, before jumping into a little hooligan action. It's quickly set up that Lyra is the fearless, creative, and outspoken tough girl, and Richards handles it with ease, which should mean great things for the rest of the film. But as a teaser clip to whet our appetites, I'm not sure this will really wow anyone but those who are itching to see it, and would see it whether the opening was released or not. At the same time, it does, however, offer a brief setup of this fantastical world, which can help those wondering what's up with this whole Compass movie and religion kerfuffle. We don't have too long to wait to see it ourselves. The film hits theaters this week.

... If people stopped bitching about The Golden Compass and, instead, waited to go see the actual movie? Sure, according to a recent Hollywood Reporter article, they've "removed all references to the church, the Bible and sin ..." -- but does it really matter? It's a kids film. And I don't blame New Line or director Chris Weitz for wanting to tone down the "heavy" material so that the more fantastical elements of the books could remain front and center. Film is a visual medium after all. The Christian groups are pissed the flick will make kids want to go buy the books and -- God forbid -- learn more about the world. Like the film is some sort of ridiculous gateway drug that could potentially corrupt the minds of millions of children everywhere. The Golden Compass -- it's the new heroin! Here's how I imagine a conversation between child and parent will go immediately after watching The Golden Compass:

Parent: [sweating, shaking] So ... did you, gulp, like the film?

Kid: I liked the talking bear. He was cool. Can we get ice cream?

Parent: So, um [wipes sweat] -- you don't want to become an Atheist now?

Kid: No. I simply want a parent that isn't a complete f**king moron. I want a parent that lets me make my own decisions in life. I want a parent that exposes me to all religions, to all beliefs, and allows me to learn about the world I live in. As a person who represents the future of this country, and this world, I believe I deserve that. So, can we get ice cream now?

Fans of the books are pissed because all the "meat" has been left on the cutting room floor. Oh well. Welcome to Hollywood ... book readers. The Golden Compass will sneak preview this Saturday night in 800 theaters across America. If, come Monday morning, 800 theaters worth of people suddenly decide to swear off the whole God thing, we'll know we have a problem. In the meantime, where are the guys from South Park when you need a good rant on religion. Oh wait, there they are ...